Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) fair value analysis
S&P 500 & Nasdaq · Updated 2026-10-19
TSCO price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
UndervaluedTSCO is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $33.70
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- 12-month range
- $29.14–$56.37
- Market cap
- $17.6B
- From 52-week high
- -40.2%
- Shares outstanding
- 521M
- Rank in Consumer Cyclical by discount to fair value
- #19 of 85
Last price is our 2026-10-19 weekly price; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
Tractor Supply Company is a rural lifestyle retailer that sells farm, ranch, and home products including equipment, tools, clothing, and pet supplies. The company operates stores across the United States and online.
TSCO currently ranks #19 of 85 Consumer Cyclical stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Undervalued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $17.6B
- P/E (trailing)
- 17x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $15.8B
- Net margin
- 6.4%
- EPS (TTM)
- $2.04
- Gross margin
- 34.2%
- Debt / equity
- 2.49
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- 11.0%
- Shares outstanding
- 521M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- F
- Margin trend
- Contracting
- 52-week position
- The bottom quarter of its range
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 51 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $33.73
- 200-day average
- $38.97
- Moving-average state
- 50-day below 200-day (death cross state); price below both averages
Dividends how computed
- Paid, last 12 months
- $0.95 per share (4 payments)
- Yield on last price
- 2.82%
- Consecutive years of increases
- 0 (no streak on complete calendar years)
- Last ex-dividend date
- 2026-08-24
- Last payment date
- 2026-09-08
Earnings how computed
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 2 beat, 5 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▼ miss (-2.4%)
2026-03 ▼ miss (-8.8%)
2025-12 ▼ miss (-6.5%)
2025-09 ▲ beat (+2.1%)
2025-06 ▲ beat (+1.3%)
2025-03 ▼ miss (-8.1%)
2024-12 ▼ miss (-4.3%)
2024-09 ▬ met (0.0%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 15 buy · 15 hold · 0 sell (30 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Buy-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $35.7
- Target vs last price
- +5.9%
What our data shows for TSCO
- Our model validated 9 trailing price-to-earnings windows for TSCO, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the lower third of their 12-month price range of $29.14–$56.37.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 51.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for TSCO
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent TSCO news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for TSCO is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- Former Amazon and Opendoor leaders raise $3M to give every key business metric its own AI agent (geekwire.com, 2026-09-23)
TickrTrends take: Tractor Supply Company operates in a competitive consumer cyclical sector where operational efficiency directly impacts margins and shareholder returns. The emergence of AI-driven tools for business metric monitoring represents a broader technological shift that could reshape how retailers optimize inventory, pricing, and supply chain decisions. For investors evaluating TSCO under TickrTrends' undervalued designation, the adoption pace of such AI solutions across the retail landscape warrants monitoring as a potential competitive factor affecting future earnings quality and operational leverage. - Massimo Group Launches Retro-Inspired Mini Truck Exclusively at Tractor Supply for 2026 Holiday Season (manilatimes.net, 2026-09-16)
TickrTrends take: Tractor Supply's exclusive partnership to launch Massimo Group's retro-inspired mini truck for the 2026 holiday season represents a potential revenue diversification opportunity within its Consumer Cyclical operations. TickrTrends currently rates TSCO as undervalued, suggesting the market may not be fully pricing in the growth potential from expanding into adjacent product categories like recreational vehicles. Valuation-focused investors should monitor whether this seasonal product launch drives incremental customer traffic and basket size expansion that could improve the company's earnings trajectory. - TSCO Looks 40.6% Undervalued on GF Value™ as Dividend Remains Attractive (gurufocus.com, 2026-09-15)
TickrTrends take: Tractor Supply's current undervalued status aligns with TickrTrends' assessment, suggesting potential upside for investors focused on valuation metrics. The combination of an attractive dividend yield and meaningful undervaluation in the Consumer Cyclical sector creates a scenario where shareholders receive income while holding a security trading below fundamental value estimates. Investors tracking valuation-focused strategies in this sector may want to monitor whether the company's earnings trajectory and capital allocation decisions support a convergence toward fair value.
What people are saying
Follow the TSCO conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — # TSCO Weekly Indicator Summary TickrTrends' derived indicators for TSCO showed deterioration this week as the quality grade declined from D to F, reflecting a negative shift in the company's fundamental metrics. Despite this downgrade in quality assessment, the current valuation verdict remains Undervalued, suggesting that the market price may not yet fully reflect the recent weakness in underlying quality factors.
- 2026-10-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-21 — TSCO's trend indicators shifted unfavorably this week, with the 50/200-day moving average relationship transitioning from a mixed state into a downtrend. Despite this technical deterioration, the stock maintains an undervalued assessment based on current valuation metrics. The downtrend development warrants monitoring for potential further weakness in the near term.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is TSCO stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), TSCO is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value and screens as undervalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is TSCO's TickrTrends verdict?
TSCO's current verdict is Undervalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does TSCO compare to other Consumer Cyclical stocks?
TSCO ranks #19 of 85 Consumer Cyclical stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is TSCO overbought or oversold?
TSCO's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
Does TSCO pay a dividend?
Yes. TSCO paid $0.95 per share over the last twelve months (4 payments), a 2.82% yield on TickrTrends' last price. The last ex-dividend date was 2026-08-24.
Does TSCO usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters TSCO beat the consensus estimate 2 times and missed 5 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about TSCO?
Of 30 analysts covering TSCO, 15 rate it a buy, 15 a hold and 0 a sell - buy-leaning, with a consensus price target of $35.7 (+5.9% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
More in Consumer Cyclical
Head-to-head comparisons
TSCO vs APTV · TSCO vs BALL · TSCO vs BBWI · TSCO vs BKNG · TSCO vs LKQ