Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) fair value analysis

S&P 500 & Nasdaq · Updated 2026-09-07

Tesla, Inc. manufactures and sells electric vehicles, including sedans and sport utility vehicles, as well as energy storage systems and solar products. The company operates manufacturing facilities and sales operations across multiple continents, including North America, Europe, and Asia.

Forward Fair Value verdict

Overvalued

Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model, TSLA is trading at more than a 25% premium to estimated fair value.

TSLA currently ranks #88 of 88 Consumer Cyclical stocks by discount to Forward Fair Value. It has screened as Overvalued for 3 consecutive weekly runs.

Last price: $354.08
Sector: Consumer Cyclical
12-month range: $311.21–$468.37

Derived indicators

Coarse bands from TickrTrends' weekly models; exact figures are part of the full report.

Quality grade: D
Leverage: Low
Margin trend: Stable
Revenue growth: Modest
RSI zone: Neutral
50/200-day trend: Downtrend
52-week position: The lower-middle quarter of its range

What our data shows for TSLA

Our model validated 10 trailing price-to-earnings windows for TSLA, built from quarterly earnings records.
Shares are trading in the lower third of their 12-month price range of $311.21–$468.37.
The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 56.

The exact numbers are one step away

The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for TSLA
Exact discount / premium to today's price
The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes

See the exact fair value →

How Forward Fair Value works

TickrTrends computes a Forward Fair Value for every covered stock each week: a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple is applied to the analyst-consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year. Every input window is validated for continuity and every result is screened for plausibility before publication.

Recent TSLA news

TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for TSLA is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.

Tesla: Still Far Away From Being A Convenient Investment (NASDAQ:TSLA) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-09-08)
TickrTrends take: Tesla trades in the Consumer Cyclical sector where valuations typically contract during economic uncertainty, yet the company commands a premium that reflects growth expectations rather than current earnings multiples. TickrTrends currently derives an Overvalued verdict for TSLA, suggesting the market price exceeds what fundamentals alone would justify based on sector comparables and historical valuation ranges. Investors focused on valuation metrics should monitor whether Tesla's revenue growth and profitability trends narrow the gap between its current price and what traditional valuation models would support.
Tesla Sales Crippled In World’s Biggest EV Country (finance.yahoo.com, 2026-09-08)
TickrTrends take: Tesla's sales challenges in China, the world's largest electric vehicle market, represent a significant headwind for a company whose growth narrative depends heavily on international expansion and scale. Given TickrTrends' assessment that TSLA is currently overvalued, weakness in this critical geographic market raises questions about whether the current valuation adequately reflects execution risks in the company's largest growth opportunity. Investors should monitor whether Tesla can stabilize its market position in China, as deterioration in this region could further pressure a stock already trading at levels that TickrTrends considers stretched relative to fundamentals.
Tesla Stock: Elon Is Going For The Robotaxi Moonshot (NASDAQ:TSLA) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-09-08)

What people are saying

Follow the TSLA conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X

TickrTrends weekly updates

2026-09-07 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
2026-09-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
2026-08-31 — TickrTrends initiated weekly Forward Fair Value coverage of this stock.

Frequently asked questions

Is TSLA stock undervalued?

Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-09-07), TSLA is trading at more than a 25% premium to estimated fair value and screens as overvalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.

What is TSLA's TickrTrends verdict?

TSLA's current verdict is Overvalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.

How does TSLA compare to other Consumer Cyclical stocks?

TSLA ranks #88 of 88 Consumer Cyclical stocks in TickrTrends' coverage when sorted by discount to Forward Fair Value.

Is TSLA overbought or oversold?

TSLA's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.

All Consumer Cyclical fair-value coverage →

Head-to-head comparisons

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