Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) fair value analysis
S&P 500 & Nasdaq · Updated 2026-10-19
TSLA price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
OvervaluedTSLA is trading at more than a 25% premium to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $382.70
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- 12-month range
- $298.32–$489.88
- Market cap
- $1.51T
- From 52-week high
- -21.9%
- Shares outstanding
- 3.95B
- Rank in Consumer Cyclical by discount to fair value
- #85 of 85
Last price is our 2026-10-19 weekly price; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
Tesla, Inc. manufactures and sells electric vehicles, including sedans and sport utility vehicles, as well as energy storage systems and solar products. The company operates manufacturing facilities and sales operations across multiple continents, including North America, Europe, and Asia.
TSLA currently ranks #85 of 85 Consumer Cyclical stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Overvalued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $1.51T
- P/E (trailing)
- 220x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $104B
- Net margin
- 3.7%
- EPS (TTM)
- $1.74
- Gross margin
- 16.8%
- Debt / equity
- 0.11
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- 7.0%
- Shares outstanding
- 3.95B
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- D
- Margin trend
- Expanding
- 52-week position
- The lower-middle quarter of its range
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 41 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $359.46
- 200-day average
- $387.99
- Moving-average state
- 50-day below 200-day (death cross state); price between the averages
Earnings how computed
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 4 beat, 3 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▲ beat (+3.1%)
2026-03 ▲ beat (+17.1%)
2025-12 ▲ beat (+11.1%)
2025-09 ▼ miss (-10.7%)
2025-06 ▬ met (0.0%)
2025-03 ▼ miss (-34.1%)
2024-12 ▼ miss (-3.9%)
2024-09 ▲ beat (+20.0%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 19 buy · 21 hold · 4 sell (44 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Hold-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $398
- Target vs last price
- +4.0%
What our data shows for TSLA
- Our model validated 10 trailing price-to-earnings windows for TSLA, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the middle of their 12-month price range of $298.32–$489.88.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 41.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for TSLA
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent TSLA news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for TSLA is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- Tesla Stock After Q3: $374 on $0.48 Beat, $400 or $347 (financefeeds.com, 2026-10-22)
TickrTrends take: Tesla reported third quarter earnings that exceeded analyst expectations, with the stock trading near the 374 level. TickrTrends currently assesses Tesla as overvalued within the Consumer Cyclical sector, suggesting that recent earnings strength may not justify current valuation multiples relative to fundamentals. Investors focused on valuation metrics should monitor whether Tesla's stock gravitates toward the higher or lower end of the indicated range, as either outcome could signal whether market expectations are repricing the company's growth prospects or reflecting broader sector dynamics. - SpaceX’s profit helps lift AI stocks and Wall Street (jamaica-gleaner.com, 2026-10-22)
TickrTrends take: Tesla trades in the Consumer Cyclical sector where valuation multiples typically compress during periods of economic uncertainty, yet the headline suggests investor enthusiasm for space and AI-related narratives may be supporting equity prices broadly. Given TickrTrends' current overvalued assessment of Tesla, the positive sentiment around SpaceX's profitability could be masking fundamental valuation concerns in Tesla's core automotive business that warrant scrutiny. A valuation-focused investor should monitor whether Tesla's stock price continues to track AI enthusiasm or begins to reflect underlying business metrics more directly. - The Nasdaq Index Just Had Its Worst Week Since June (financefeeds.com, 2026-10-17)
TickrTrends take: Tesla shares may face additional pressure if the recent Nasdaq weakness extends further, given that growth-oriented technology stocks typically experience heightened volatility during broad market selloffs. With TickrTrends currently assessing Tesla as overvalued, a sustained period of sector-wide decline could test whether current valuations compress toward more sustainable levels. Investors focused on valuation metrics should monitor whether Tesla's Consumer Cyclical peer group experiences correlated declines that might reveal underlying fundamental reassessment in the market.
More TSLA news
- Tesla Unveils Next-Gen Roadster with SpaceX Technology, Stock Up Over 3% (TSLA) (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-16)
- Senate Leadership Fund Raises $272.9M in Q3, Elon Musk Donates $158M; TSLA Insights (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-16)
- The Tesla Story Is Falling Apart, And A Flying Roadster Won’t Save It (NASDAQ:TSLA) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-10-14)
- CoreWeave shares tumble as bond yields near 15% on concern about AI borrowing binge (cnbc.com, 2026-10-14)
- Tesla Plans Chip Development Factory in Texas to Accelerate Design Process (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-13)
- Tesla And Wright’s Law: My Notes On The Deviations (NASDAQ:TSLA) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-10-12)
- Tesla (TSLA) Deliveries Beat Expectations. But TSLA’s 159x Forward P/E Is Betting on Much More (insidermonkey.com, 2026-10-10)
What people are saying
Follow the TSLA conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for TSLA showed movement this week as the quality grade improved from F to D. The stock remains in the Consumer Cyclical sector and maintains an Overvalued valuation verdict based on current analysis.
- 2026-10-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is TSLA stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), TSLA is trading at more than a 25% premium to estimated fair value and screens as overvalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is TSLA's TickrTrends verdict?
TSLA's current verdict is Overvalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does TSLA compare to other Consumer Cyclical stocks?
TSLA ranks #85 of 85 Consumer Cyclical stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is TSLA overbought or oversold?
TSLA's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
Does TSLA usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters TSLA beat the consensus estimate 4 times and missed 3 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about TSLA?
Of 44 analysts covering TSLA, 19 rate it a buy, 21 a hold and 4 a sell - hold-leaning, with a consensus price target of $398 (+4.0% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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