Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) fair value analysis

S&P 500 · Updated 2026-09-07

Ulta Beauty, Inc. operates a chain of beauty retail stores that sell cosmetics, fragrance, skincare, and haircare products from a wide range of brands alongside its own private label offerings. The company operates stores across the United States and maintains an e-commerce platform serving customers online.

Forward Fair Value verdict

Fairly valued

Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model, ULTA is trading at within about 10% of estimated fair value.

ULTA currently ranks #50 of 88 Consumer Cyclical stocks by discount to Forward Fair Value. It has screened as Fairly valued for 3 consecutive weekly runs.

Last price: $564.12
Sector: Consumer Cyclical
12-month range: $500.77–$677.00

Derived indicators

Coarse bands from TickrTrends' weekly models; exact figures are part of the full report.

Quality grade: F
Leverage: Moderate
Margin trend: Stable
Revenue growth: Modest
RSI zone: Neutral
52-week position: The lower-middle quarter of its range
DCF cross-check: Overvalued

What our data shows for ULTA

Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for ULTA, built from quarterly earnings records.
Shares are trading in the middle of their 12-month price range of $500.77–$677.00.
The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 58.

The exact numbers are one step away

The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for ULTA
Exact discount / premium to today's price
The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes

See the exact fair value →

How Forward Fair Value works

TickrTrends computes a Forward Fair Value for every covered stock each week: a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple is applied to the analyst-consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year. Every input window is validated for continuity and every result is screened for plausibility before publication.

Recent ULTA news

TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for ULTA is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.

MarketBeat Week in Review – 08/31 - 09/04 (finance.yahoo.com, 2026-09-05)
TickrTrends take: Ulta Beauty operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, where valuation becomes particularly sensitive to shifts in consumer spending patterns and retail traffic trends. The stock's current Fairly valued assessment suggests the market has priced in existing expectations about the company's earnings potential and growth trajectory, leaving limited margin for error if consumer demand softens. Investors monitoring this valuation should pay close attention to quarterly same-store sales trends and inventory levels, as these metrics often signal whether the Fair value rating will hold or require adjustment.
Is It Too Late to Buy Ulta Beauty Inc (ULTA) After 3.8% Rally? GF Value Says Undervalued (gurufocus.com, 2026-08-31)
TickrTrends take: Ulta Beauty operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, where valuations can shift based on consumer spending patterns and market sentiment. TickrTrends currently assesses ULTA as fairly valued, which contrasts with the headline's suggestion of undervaluation, indicating that different valuation methodologies may be producing divergent conclusions. Investors focused on valuation metrics should monitor whether ULTA's recent rally represents a temporary correction or signals a shift in fundamental value drivers that might warrant reassessment.

What people are saying

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TickrTrends weekly updates

2026-09-07 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
2026-09-06 — ULTA's sector discount rank declined this week, moving from 39th to 50th position among Consumer Cyclical stocks. The stock remains Fairly valued according to current valuation metrics. This shift in ranking suggests the company's valuation relative to its sector peers has become less favorable compared to the previous week.
2026-08-31 — TickrTrends initiated weekly Forward Fair Value coverage of this stock.

Frequently asked questions

Is ULTA stock undervalued?

Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-09-07), ULTA is trading at within about 10% of estimated fair value and screens as fairly valued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.

What is ULTA's TickrTrends verdict?

ULTA's current verdict is Fairly valued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.

How does ULTA compare to other Consumer Cyclical stocks?

ULTA ranks #50 of 88 Consumer Cyclical stocks in TickrTrends' coverage when sorted by discount to Forward Fair Value.

Is ULTA overbought or oversold?

ULTA's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.

All Consumer Cyclical fair-value coverage →

Head-to-head comparisons

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