Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) fair value analysis
S&P 500 · Updated 2026-10-19
ULTA price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
Fairly valuedULTA is trading at within about 10% of estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $570.37
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- 12-month range
- $450.75–$706.82
- Market cap
- $24.4B
- From 52-week high
- -19.3%
- Shares outstanding
- 42.8M
- Rank in Consumer Cyclical by discount to fair value
- #50 of 85
Last price is our 2026-10-19 weekly price; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
Ulta Beauty, Inc. operates a chain of beauty retail stores that sell cosmetics, fragrance, skincare, and haircare products from a wide range of brands alongside its own private label offerings. The company operates stores across the United States and maintains an e-commerce platform serving customers online.
ULTA currently ranks #50 of 85 Consumer Cyclical stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Fairly valued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $24.4B
- P/E (trailing)
- 21x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $13B
- Net margin
- 9.3%
- EPS (TTM)
- $27.44
- Gross margin
- 39.1%
- Debt / equity
- 0.95
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- 7.3%
- Shares outstanding
- 42.8M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- D
- Margin trend
- Stable
- 52-week position
- The lower-middle quarter of its range
- DCF cross-check
- Overvalued
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 66 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $545.75
- 200-day average
- $554.17
- Moving-average state
- 50-day below 200-day (death cross state); price between the averages
Dividends how computed
- Dividend
- None in the last 12 months (last ex-date 2012-03-16)
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-12-03
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 7 beat, 1 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-07 ▲ beat (+5.5%)
2026-04 ▲ beat (+12.2%)
2026-01 ▼ miss (-0.2%)
2025-10 ▲ beat (+11.5%)
2025-07 ▲ beat (+13.3%)
2025-04 ▲ beat (+15.5%)
2025-01 ▲ beat (+18.5%)
2024-10 ▲ beat (+13.7%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 19 buy · 9 hold · 0 sell (28 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Buy-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $631
- Target vs last price
- +10.6%
What our data shows for ULTA
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for ULTA, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the middle of their 12-month price range of $450.75–$706.82.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 66.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for ULTA
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent ULTA news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for ULTA is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- Waldencast plc Files Form 15 to Deregister its Securities and Suspend its SEC Reporting Obligations under the Exchange Act (manilatimes.net, 2026-10-15)
TickrTrends take: Waldencast plc, which holds a significant stake in Ulta Beauty through its ownership of the Ulta parent company, has filed Form 15 to deregister its securities and cease SEC reporting obligations. This corporate action reduces public transparency on a major shareholder and could affect how investors monitor Ulta's ownership structure and strategic direction. Given that Ulta is currently valued as fairly priced by TickrTrends, investors should monitor whether changes in shareholder composition or reporting requirements impact the company's capital allocation decisions or strategic priorities within the Consumer Cyclical sector. - Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Surges 18.39% in Q3, Outperforming Consumer Discretionary Sector (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-04)
TickrTrends take: Ulta Beauty's significant outperformance in Q3 relative to its sector peers suggests the market has recognized operational strength or improved business fundamentals. Against TickrTrends' current assessment of fair valuation, investors monitoring this Consumer Cyclical company should track whether this momentum reflects sustainable competitive advantages or temporary sector tailwinds that might affect future valuation adjustments. The stock's relative strength compared to the broader discretionary sector provides a useful reference point for evaluating whether current pricing remains appropriate as new quarterly results emerge. - Ulta Beauty: This Growth Story Could Go Far Beyond Store Count (NASDAQ:ULTA) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-09-30)
TickrTrends take: Ulta Beauty trades at a valuation the market currently considers fair, which suggests investors have already priced in reasonable expectations for near-term growth. For a valuation-focused reader, the key consideration is whether management can demonstrate that growth drivers beyond physical store expansion—such as e-commerce penetration, comparable store sales, or margin expansion—can sustain the growth narrative without requiring constant store count increases. As a Consumer Cyclical business, Ulta's valuation may be sensitive to shifts in consumer spending patterns, making execution on these alternative growth levers particularly important for maintaining its current valuation level.
More ULTA news
- Is the Beauty Aisle Becoming Retail’s Next Big Battleground for Walmart (WMT) and Ulta (ULTA)? (insidermonkey.com, 2026-09-28)
What people are saying
Follow the ULTA conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — ULTA's sector discount rank declined to 63rd this week from 58th, indicating a modest weakening of its relative valuation position within the Consumer Cyclical sector. The stock remains fairly valued according to current valuation assessment metrics. This shift suggests ULTA has moved slightly higher in relative valuation compared to other sector peers, though it maintains a positioning in the middle range of the sector's discount rankings.
- 2026-10-10 — ULTA's quality grade improved from F to D this week according to TickrTrends' derived indicators. The stock maintains a fairly valued status at current levels. This upgrade in the quality metric suggests some incremental improvement in the company's underlying fundamentals or operational characteristics as measured by the service's analytical framework.
- 2026-10-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is ULTA stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), ULTA is trading at within about 10% of estimated fair value and screens as fairly valued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is ULTA's TickrTrends verdict?
ULTA's current verdict is Fairly valued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does ULTA compare to other Consumer Cyclical stocks?
ULTA ranks #50 of 85 Consumer Cyclical stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is ULTA overbought or oversold?
ULTA's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
Does ULTA pay a dividend?
ULTA has paid no dividend in the last twelve months; its last ex-dividend date on file was 2012-03-16.
When does ULTA report earnings next?
ULTA's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-12-03, per the published earnings calendar.
Does ULTA usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters ULTA beat the consensus estimate 7 times and missed 1 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about ULTA?
Of 28 analysts covering ULTA, 19 rate it a buy, 9 a hold and 0 a sell - buy-leaning, with a consensus price target of $631 (+10.6% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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