Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) fair value analysis
S&P 500 · Updated 2026-10-19
UNP price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
Fairly valuedUNP is trading at within about 10% of estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $278.34
- Sector
- Industrials
- 12-month range
- $216.37–$310.62
- Market cap
- $165B
- From 52-week high
- -10.4%
- Shares outstanding
- 594M
- Rank in Industrials by discount to fair value
- #60 of 106
Last price is our 2026-10-19 weekly price; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
Union Pacific Corporation is one of the largest railroad operators in the United States, providing freight transportation services for goods including chemicals, agricultural products, automotive components, and intermodal containers. The company operates an extensive rail network spanning across the western two-thirds of the United States, connecting major ports, metropolitan areas, and industrial centers from the Pacific Coast to the Gulf of Mexico and the Mississippi River.
UNP currently ranks #60 of 106 Industrials stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Fairly valued for 13 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $165B
- P/E (trailing)
- 23x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $25.4B
- Net margin
- 28.8%
- EPS (TTM)
- $12.28
- Gross margin
- 45.5%
- Debt / equity
- 1.51
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- 5.2%
- Shares outstanding
- 594M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- C
- Margin trend
- Stable
- 52-week position
- The upper-middle quarter of its range
- DCF cross-check
- Overvalued
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 61 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $287.75
- 200-day average
- $267.10
- Moving-average state
- 50-day above 200-day (golden cross state); price between the averages
Dividends how computed
- Paid, last 12 months
- $5.56 per share (4 payments)
- Yield on last price
- 2.00%
- Consecutive years of increases
- 10
- Last ex-dividend date
- 2026-08-31
- Last payment date
- 2026-09-30
Earnings how computed
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 5 beat, 3 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▲ beat (+6.6%)
2026-03 ▲ beat (+2.4%)
2025-12 ▼ miss (-0.3%)
2025-09 ▲ beat (+2.7%)
2025-06 ▲ beat (+4.1%)
2025-03 ▼ miss (-1.1%)
2024-12 ▲ beat (+6.8%)
2024-09 ▼ miss (-1.1%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 18 buy · 6 hold · 1 sell (25 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Buy-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $328
- Target vs last price
- +17.8%
What our data shows for UNP
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for UNP, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the middle of their 12-month price range of $216.37–$310.62.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 61.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for UNP
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent UNP news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for UNP is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- Union Pacific CFO Jennifer Hamann to Retire in Early 2027, UNP Stock Faces Mixed Signals (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-16)
TickrTrends take: Union Pacific's announcement of its CFO's retirement in early 2027 introduces a period of leadership transition at a company currently assessed as fairly valued by TickrTrends. Investors focused on valuation should monitor how the company manages the search for Hamann's successor and whether any strategic shifts emerge during the transition that could affect operational efficiency or financial performance. Given that the Industrials sector often prizes stable management and predictable cash flows, the market's response to this executive change will be relevant for assessing whether UNP's fair valuation rating remains appropriate over the coming months. - Union Pacific (UNP) CFO Jennifer Hamann to Retire in Early 2027, Signaling Leadership Transition (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-16)
TickrTrends take: Union Pacific's planned CFO transition in early 2027 introduces a leadership change that investors focused on valuation should monitor for potential impacts on financial strategy and capital allocation decisions. Given that UNP is currently assessed as fairly valued, the market will likely scrutinize how the company's new financial leadership approaches cost management, dividend policy, and shareholder returns in a capital-intensive industrials business. The timing of this executive transition provides an opportunity to observe whether the company's valuation multiples shift based on investor confidence in the successor's financial direction. - What is Union Pacific’s (UNP) Economic Moat, and is it Widening or Narrowing? (insidermonkey.com, 2026-10-14)
TickrTrends take: Union Pacific operates as a major freight railroad with established infrastructure advantages that create barriers to competition in the transportation sector. Given the Fairly valued assessment from TickrTrends, investors should monitor whether the company's competitive advantages are strengthening or deteriorating, as changes in its economic moat could justify valuation adjustments in either direction. The durability of UNP's market position relative to operating costs and pricing power will be particularly relevant for evaluating whether current valuation levels remain appropriate.
More UNP news
- Union Pacific Stock: Not Too Late To Buy Now (NYSE:UNP) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-10-10)
- Union Pacific: The Earnings Keep Beating, But The Stock Keeps Falling (NYSE:UNP) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-10-02)
- UNP Looks 6.8% Overvalued on GF Value™ Amid Solid Dividend Fundamentals (gurufocus.com, 2026-09-23)
What people are saying
Follow the UNP conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — UNP's RSI moved out of oversold territory into neutral zone this week, suggesting a shift in momentum dynamics. The stock maintains a fairly valued assessment based on current valuation metrics.
- 2026-10-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-21 — UNP's RSI indicator moved from the neutral zone into oversold territory this week, suggesting the stock may have experienced selling pressure. Despite this technical shift, the stock maintains a fairly valued assessment based on current valuation metrics. The oversold reading could indicate a potential reversal opportunity, though investors should monitor whether the stock stabilizes in this zone or continues lower.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is UNP stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), UNP is trading at within about 10% of estimated fair value and screens as fairly valued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is UNP's TickrTrends verdict?
UNP's current verdict is Fairly valued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does UNP compare to other Industrials stocks?
UNP ranks #60 of 106 Industrials stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is UNP overbought or oversold?
UNP's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
Does UNP pay a dividend?
Yes. UNP paid $5.56 per share over the last twelve months (4 payments), a 2.00% yield on TickrTrends' last price, and has raised the annual total for 10 consecutive years. The last ex-dividend date was 2026-08-31.
Does UNP usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters UNP beat the consensus estimate 5 times and missed 3 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about UNP?
Of 25 analysts covering UNP, 18 rate it a buy, 6 a hold and 1 a sell - buy-leaning, with a consensus price target of $328 (+17.8% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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