Vistra Corp. (VST) fair value analysis
S&P 500 · Updated 2026-10-19
VST price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
UndervaluedVST is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $161.48
- Sector
- Utilities
- 12-month range
- $134.71–$201.47
- Market cap
- $54.2B
- From 52-week high
- -19.8%
- Shares outstanding
- 336M
- Rank in Utilities by discount to fair value
- #3 of 36
Last price is our 2026-10-19 weekly price; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
Vistra Corp. is an integrated power generation and retail electricity company that produces and sells electricity to wholesale markets and retail customers. The company operates generation facilities and serves customers primarily across Texas and other parts of the United States.
VST currently ranks #3 of 36 Utilities stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Undervalued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $54.2B
- P/E (trailing)
- 20x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $16B
- Net margin
- 13.9%
- EPS (TTM)
- $8.23
- Gross margin
- 23.5%
- Debt / equity
- 3.63
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- -7.6%
- Shares outstanding
- 336M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- F
- Margin trend
- Contracting
- 52-week position
- The lower-middle quarter of its range
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 52 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $144.88
- 200-day average
- $154.58
- Moving-average state
- 50-day below 200-day (death cross state); price between the averages
Dividends how computed
- Paid, last 12 months
- $0.91 per share (4 payments)
- Yield on last price
- 0.57%
- Consecutive years of increases
- 6
- Last ex-dividend date
- 2026-09-21
- Last payment date
- 2026-09-30
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-11-06 (pre-market)
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 4 beat, 4 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▲ beat (+16.9%)
2026-03 ▲ beat (+29.9%)
2025-12 ▼ miss (-13.1%)
2025-09 ▼ miss (-1.4%)
2025-06 ▲ beat (+3.1%)
2025-03 ▼ miss (-251.7%)
2024-12 ▼ miss (-45.3%)
2024-09 ▲ beat (+316.7%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 19 buy · 0 hold · 1 sell (20 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Buy-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $210
- Target vs last price
- +30.0%
What our data shows for VST
- Our model validated 13 trailing price-to-earnings windows for VST, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the middle of their 12-month price range of $134.71–$201.47.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 52.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for VST
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent VST news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for VST is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- Is It Too Late to Buy Vistra Corp (VST) After 3.9% Rally? GF Value Says Undervalued (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-21)
TickrTrends take: Vistra's recent rally reflects market momentum, yet TickrTrends maintains an undervalued assessment of the company within the Utilities sector, suggesting the stock may still trade below intrinsic value levels. Valuation-focused investors monitoring VST should track whether the stock's fundamental metrics continue to support the undervalued designation or whether the recent price movement narrows the gap to fair value. The persistence of an undervalued rating despite near-term price gains indicates that longer-term value drivers in the utility space may not yet be fully reflected in the current market price. - Vistra Corp. (VST) Is a Trending Stock: Facts to Know Before Betting on It (zacks.com, 2026-10-20)
TickrTrends take: Vistra Corp is currently identified as undervalued according to TickrTrends analysis, which means the market price may not fully reflect the company's intrinsic worth relative to its fundamentals as a utilities sector operator. The trending nature of VST suggests increased investor attention, and valuation-focused readers should monitor whether this heightened interest narrows the gap between current pricing and the company's underlying asset and earnings value. In the utilities sector, where cash flows tend to be more predictable, the undervalued designation may indicate an opportunity for investors seeking stable, fundamentally-supported positions rather than those chasing momentum alone. - President Trump and Nancy Pelosi’s AI Data Center Stock Pick: Vistra (VST) (insidermonkey.com, 2026-10-16)
TickrTrends take: Vistra operates in the Utilities sector and carries a TickrTrends derived verdict of Undervalued at its current valuation. The company has attracted political attention as an AI data center stock, reflecting growing infrastructure demand in that sector. Investors focused on valuation metrics should monitor whether VST's current pricing reflects the full scope of opportunities and risks associated with increased AI infrastructure development.
More VST news
- Why Constellation Energy Has A Near Term Edge Over Vistra (NYSE:VST) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-10-15)
- Vistra Corp (VST) Stock Down 6.5% -- Now Undervalued? GF Score: 81/100 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-14)
- Vistra Corp. (VST) Registers a Bigger Fall Than the Market: Important Facts to Note (zacks.com, 2026-10-08)
- Jim Cramer Sees Something Worth Revisiting in These Power Stocks (insidermonkey.com, 2026-10-08)
- Vistra vs. Talen: Which AI Power Stock Has the Stronger Cash-Flow Case? (insidermonkey.com, 2026-10-07)
What people are saying
Follow the VST conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is VST stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), VST is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value and screens as undervalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is VST's TickrTrends verdict?
VST's current verdict is Undervalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does VST compare to other Utilities stocks?
VST ranks #3 of 36 Utilities stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is VST overbought or oversold?
VST's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
Does VST pay a dividend?
Yes. VST paid $0.91 per share over the last twelve months (4 payments), a 0.57% yield on TickrTrends' last price, and has raised the annual total for 6 consecutive years. The last ex-dividend date was 2026-09-21.
When does VST report earnings next?
VST's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-11-06 (pre-market), per the published earnings calendar.
Does VST usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters VST beat the consensus estimate 4 times and missed 4 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about VST?
Of 20 analysts covering VST, 19 rate it a buy, 0 a hold and 1 a sell - buy-leaning, with a consensus price target of $210 (+30.0% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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