Vistra Corp. (VST) fair value analysis

S&P 500 · Updated 2026-09-07

Vistra Corp. is an integrated power generation and retail electricity company that produces and sells electricity to wholesale markets and retail customers. The company operates generation facilities and serves customers primarily across Texas and other parts of the United States.

Forward Fair Value verdict

Undervalued

Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model, VST is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value.

VST currently ranks #3 of 36 Utilities stocks by discount to Forward Fair Value. It has screened as Undervalued for 3 consecutive weekly runs.

Last price: $149.30
Sector: Utilities
12-month range: $138.08–$193.04

Derived indicators

Coarse bands from TickrTrends' weekly models; exact figures are part of the full report.

Quality grade: F
Leverage: High
Margin trend: Expanding
Revenue growth: Declining
RSI zone: Neutral
52-week position: The bottom quarter of its range

What our data shows for VST

Our model validated 13 trailing price-to-earnings windows for VST, built from quarterly earnings records.
Shares are trading in the lower third of their 12-month price range of $138.08–$193.04.
The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 65.

The exact numbers are one step away

The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for VST
Exact discount / premium to today's price
The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes

See the exact fair value →

How Forward Fair Value works

TickrTrends computes a Forward Fair Value for every covered stock each week: a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple is applied to the analyst-consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year. Every input window is validated for continuity and every result is screened for plausibility before publication.

Recent VST news

TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for VST is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.

Investors Heavily Search Vistra Corp. (VST): Here is What You Need to Know (zacks.com, 2026-09-08)
TickrTrends take: Vistra Corp operates in the Utilities sector and currently carries an Undervalued designation according to TickrTrends' derived analysis. The elevated investor search activity highlighted in recent coverage may reflect market participants reassessing the company's fundamental value relative to its current trading price. For valuation-focused readers, sustained interest in VST could signal either a growing recognition of undervaluation or market uncertainty that warrants monitoring of the company's operational and financial metrics.
Vistra (VST) Stock Prediction: $225 Bull Case, $95 Bear Case (financefeeds.com, 2026-09-07)
TickrTrends take: Vistra's projected bull case of $225 represents significant upside from current levels, which aligns with TickrTrends' undervalued assessment of the Utilities sector company. The bear case floor of $95 provides a wide valuation range that investors should monitor alongside the company's operational performance and sector dynamics. For valuation-focused readers, the spread between these price targets underscores the importance of tracking VST's earnings trajectory and how utility sector fundamentals evolve.
Vistra’s CEO Bought $1.17 Million of Stock After the Selloff. Is AI Power Demand Mispriced? (insidermonkey.com, 2026-09-05)
TickrTrends take: Vistra's recent CEO stock purchase following a market pullback aligns with TickrTrends' current undervalued assessment of the company. For valuation-focused investors, this insider buying activity suggests management believes the current stock price does not reflect the company's prospects in the high-demand AI power sector, where utilities face meaningful capacity expansion opportunities. The alignment between insider confidence and the undervalued verdict warrants monitoring how the market reassesses VST's earnings power as AI-driven electricity demand materializes across its service regions.

What people are saying

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TickrTrends weekly updates

2026-09-07 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
2026-09-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
2026-08-31 — TickrTrends initiated weekly Forward Fair Value coverage of this stock.

Frequently asked questions

Is VST stock undervalued?

Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-09-07), VST is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value and screens as undervalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.

What is VST's TickrTrends verdict?

VST's current verdict is Undervalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.

How does VST compare to other Utilities stocks?

VST ranks #3 of 36 Utilities stocks in TickrTrends' coverage when sorted by discount to Forward Fair Value.

Is VST overbought or oversold?

VST's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.

All Utilities fair-value coverage →

Head-to-head comparisons

VST vs AES · VST vs AWK · VST vs CEG · VST vs CMS · VST vs EIX