Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY) fair value analysis
Nasdaq · Updated 2026-10-19
CASY price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
OvervaluedCASY is trading at a 10–25% premium to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $646.27
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- 12-month range
- $513.19–$916.28
- Market cap
- $23.9B
- From 52-week high
- -29.5%
- Shares outstanding
- 37M
- Rank in Consumer Cyclical by discount to fair value
- #63 of 85
Last price is our 2026-10-19 weekly price; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
Casey's General Stores, Inc. is a convenience store operator that sells gasoline, diesel fuel, and merchandise such as food, beverages, and other retail items. The company operates stores across the central and western United States.
CASY currently ranks #63 of 85 Consumer Cyclical stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Overvalued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $23.9B
- P/E (trailing)
- 31x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $18.7B
- Net margin
- 4.1%
- EPS (TTM)
- $20.76
- Gross margin
- 19.8%
- Debt / equity
- 0.71
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- 13.2%
- Shares outstanding
- 37M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- F
- Margin trend
- Stable
- 52-week position
- The lower-middle quarter of its range
- DCF cross-check
- Overvalued
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 80 · overbought
- 50-day average
- $703.28
- 200-day average
- $736.57
- Moving-average state
- 50-day below 200-day (death cross state); price below both averages
Dividends how computed
- Paid, last 12 months
- $2.36 per share (4 payments)
- Yield on last price
- 0.37%
- Consecutive years of increases
- 26
- Next ex-dividend date
- 2026-10-30
- Last payment date
- 2026-08-14
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-12-08
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 8 beat, 0 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-07 ▲ beat (+11.7%)
2026-04 ▲ beat (+32.0%)
2026-01 ▲ beat (+16.7%)
2025-10 ▲ beat (+6.3%)
2025-07 ▲ beat (+15.4%)
2025-04 ▲ beat (+37.0%)
2025-01 ▲ beat (+11.5%)
2024-10 ▲ beat (+13.6%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 15 buy · 5 hold · 0 sell (20 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Buy-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $789
- Target vs last price
- +22.1%
What our data shows for CASY
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for CASY, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the lower third of their 12-month price range of $513.19–$916.28.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at an overbought 80.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for CASY
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent CASY news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for CASY is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- Casey's: Hype Around The Pizza Narrative Is Obscuring The Reality (NASDAQ:CASY) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-10-19)
TickrTrends take: Casey's trades at a valuation that TickrTrends currently assesses as overvalued within the Consumer Cyclical sector, suggesting the market may be pricing in optimistic expectations beyond what fundamentals support. The article's focus on the pizza business narrative highlights how investor enthusiasm around specific product lines can distract from broader operational and financial metrics that typically drive valuation assessments. Investors focused on valuation should monitor whether the company's actual financial performance and margins can justify its current market price or whether the narrative-driven momentum will face pressure upon closer examination of underlying results. - Casey's General Stores Inc (CASY) Stock Up 3.1% but GF Value Says Overvalued -- GF Score: 77/100 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-15)
TickrTrends take: Casey's General Stores trades in the Consumer Cyclical sector where valuation metrics carry particular weight given economic sensitivity. The stock's recent price movement contrasts with TickrTrends' current assessment that CASY is overvalued, suggesting a disconnect between recent market momentum and fundamental value measures. Investors focused on valuation should monitor whether the company's operational performance justifies the current price level or whether a reversion toward fair value may occur. - CASY Upgraded by RBC Capital -- Price Target Lowered to $825 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-15)
TickrTrends take: RBC Capital's upgrade of CASY alongside a price target reduction to 825 creates mixed signals that warrant attention from valuation-conscious investors, particularly given TickrTrends' current overvalued assessment. The simultaneous upgrade and lower price target suggest the analyst may be acknowledging valuation concerns even while improving the operational outlook, a dynamic especially relevant in the Consumer Cyclical sector where valuation multiples can shift rapidly. Investors focused on valuation metrics should monitor whether the market reprices CASY toward the new 825 target or whether the overvalued designation persists despite RBC's more positive stance.
More CASY news
- RBC Capital Upgrades Casey's General Stores (CASY) to Outperform with Revised $825 Target (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-15)
- Jim Cramer Notes Oil Is Behind Pressure on Casey’s (CASY) and Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) (finance.yahoo.com, 2026-09-19)
- Casey's General Stores Inc (CASY) Shares Fall 5.5% -- What GF Score of 86 Tells Investors (gurufocus.com, 2026-09-15)
- Pepsi has a convenience-store problem that's not Coca-Cola (finance.yahoo.com, 2026-09-12)
What people are saying
Follow the CASY conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for CASY show a shift this week as the Relative Strength Index has moved from a neutral zone into overbought territory. The stock's current valuation assessment remains at overvalued levels.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for CASY have shifted negatively over the past week, with the stock's 50/200-day trend state moving from mixed to downtrend territory. The relative strength index has moved from oversold into neutral zone, suggesting reduced downward momentum. Meanwhile, CASY's sector discount rank has declined from 68th to 74th position, indicating a weaker valuation position relative to other Consumer Cyclical peers. The current valuation assessment remains overvalued.
- 2026-10-05 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is CASY stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), CASY is trading at a 10–25% premium to estimated fair value and screens as overvalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is CASY's TickrTrends verdict?
CASY's current verdict is Overvalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does CASY compare to other Consumer Cyclical stocks?
CASY ranks #63 of 85 Consumer Cyclical stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is CASY overbought or oversold?
CASY's 14-day RSI is in the overbought zone on TickrTrends' latest weekly data.
Does CASY pay a dividend?
Yes. CASY paid $2.36 per share over the last twelve months (4 payments), a 0.37% yield on TickrTrends' last price, and has raised the annual total for 26 consecutive years. The next ex-dividend date on file is 2026-10-30.
When does CASY report earnings next?
CASY's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-12-08, per the published earnings calendar.
Does CASY usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters CASY beat the consensus estimate 8 times and missed 0 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about CASY?
Of 20 analysts covering CASY, 15 rate it a buy, 5 a hold and 0 a sell - buy-leaning, with a consensus price target of $789 (+22.1% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
More in Consumer Cyclical
Head-to-head comparisons
CASY vs BWA · CASY vs DHI · CASY vs GTX · CASY vs LEGH · CASY vs LQDT