Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) fair value analysis
S&P 500 · Updated 2026-09-07
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. operates a chain of fast-casual restaurants that serve customizable Mexican-inspired cuisine, including burritos, bowls, tacos, and salads. The company operates locations throughout the United States, as well as in Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany, and France.
Forward Fair Value verdict
UndervaluedBased on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model, CMG is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value.
CMG currently ranks #12 of 88 Consumer Cyclical stocks by discount to Forward Fair Value. It has screened as Undervalued for 3 consecutive weekly runs.
- Last price
- $36.96
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- 12-month range
- $30.55–$38.51
Derived indicators
Coarse bands from TickrTrends' weekly models; exact figures are part of the full report.
- Quality grade
- B
- Momentum grade
- A
- Leverage
- Moderate
- Margin trend
- Expanding
- Revenue growth
- Strong
- RSI zone
- Neutral
- 52-week position
- The top quarter of its range
- DCF cross-check
- Overvalued
What our data shows for CMG
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for CMG, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the upper third of their 12-month price range of $30.55–$38.51.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 56.
- 3 of the last 12 weekly snapshots showed positive price momentum.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for CMG
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
How Forward Fair Value works
TickrTrends computes a Forward Fair Value for every covered stock each week: a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple is applied to the analyst-consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year. Every input window is validated for continuity and every result is screened for plausibility before publication.
Recent CMG news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for CMG is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- CMG Looks 34.9% Undervalued on GF Value™ Amid Asian Expansion (gurufocus.com, 2026-09-02)
TickrTrends take: Chipotle Mexican Grill operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector where valuation metrics significantly influence investor decision-making, particularly when expansion initiatives are underway. The company's apparent undervaluation according to GF Value™ aligns with TickrTrends' current Undervalued designation, suggesting the market may not be fully pricing in the potential returns from its Asian expansion strategy. Investors focused on valuation should monitor how execution of international growth translates into earnings growth relative to the current stock price, as this will determine whether the undervaluation thesis holds.
What people are saying
Follow the CMG conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-09-07 — # CMG Stock Research Summary TickrTrends' derived indicators for Chipotle Mexican Grill show a shift in valuation assessment this week. The DCF cross-check band moved from no prior classification to overvalued, contrasting with the current valuation verdict of undervalued. This divergence between the DCF methodology and the overall valuation assessment reflects differing perspectives on the company's fundamental value within the Consumer Cyclical sector.
- 2026-09-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-08-31 — TickrTrends initiated weekly Forward Fair Value coverage of this stock.
Frequently asked questions
Is CMG stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-09-07), CMG is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value and screens as undervalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is CMG's TickrTrends verdict?
CMG's current verdict is Undervalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does CMG compare to other Consumer Cyclical stocks?
CMG ranks #12 of 88 Consumer Cyclical stocks in TickrTrends' coverage when sorted by discount to Forward Fair Value.
Is CMG overbought or oversold?
CMG's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
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