Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) fair value analysis
S&P 500 · Updated 2026-10-19
CMG price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
UndervaluedCMG is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $31.59
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- 12-month range
- $28.18–$41.19
- Market cap
- $40B
- From 52-week high
- -23.3%
- Shares outstanding
- 1.27B
- Rank in Consumer Cyclical by discount to fair value
- #8 of 85
Last price is our 2026-10-19 weekly price; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. operates a chain of fast-casual restaurants that serve customizable Mexican-inspired cuisine, including burritos, bowls, tacos, and salads. The company operates locations throughout the United States, as well as in Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany, and France.
CMG currently ranks #8 of 85 Consumer Cyclical stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Undervalued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $40B
- P/E (trailing)
- 28x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $12.4B
- Net margin
- 11.4%
- EPS (TTM)
- $1.11
- Gross margin
- 25.2%
- Debt / equity
- 2.46
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- 11.8%
- Shares outstanding
- 1.27B
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- D
- Margin trend
- Contracting
- 52-week position
- The lower-middle quarter of its range
- DCF cross-check
- Overvalued
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 31 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $33.90
- 200-day average
- $34.55
- Moving-average state
- 50-day below 200-day (death cross state); price below both averages
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-10-28 (post-market)
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 5 beat, 0 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▲ beat (+3.1%)
2026-03 ▲ beat (+1.4%)
2025-12 ▲ beat (+4.2%)
2025-09 ▬ met (0.0%)
2025-06 ▬ met (0.0%)
2025-03 ▲ beat (+3.6%)
2024-12 ▬ met (0.0%)
2024-09 ▲ beat (+8.0%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 23 buy · 12 hold · 0 sell (35 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Buy-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $43.5
- Target vs last price
- +37.7%
What our data shows for CMG
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for CMG, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the lower third of their 12-month price range of $28.18–$41.19.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 31.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for CMG
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent CMG news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for CMG is currently mixed, computed from recent coverage.
- Chipotle (CMG) Implements Price Increases at Nearly 20% of U.S. Locations Amid Strong Undervaluation Signal (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-21)
TickrTrends take: Chipotle's price increases at a significant portion of its U.S. restaurant base represent a strategic response to operational pressures that could influence margin sustainability going forward. Given TickrTrends' undervalued assessment, investors monitoring the Consumer Cyclical sector should track whether these pricing actions maintain profitability without materially affecting traffic patterns or consumer demand. The interplay between pricing power and customer retention will be critical in determining whether the current valuation discount adequately compensates for near-term execution risks. - Jim Cramer Revealed The Inside Scoop For Starbucks (SBUX) & CEO Brian Niccols (insidermonkey.com, 2026-10-17)
TickrTrends take: Chipotle Mexican Grill operates in the same competitive Consumer Cyclical sector as Starbucks, where leadership changes and operational execution significantly influence investor sentiment and valuation multiples. TickrTrends currently assesses CMG as undervalued, suggesting the market may not be fully pricing in the company's operational performance relative to comparable quick-service restaurant peers. Given that CEO transitions and strategic direction can materially affect sector valuations, investors tracking CMG's relative valuation should monitor how management decisions at competing chains like Starbucks influence investor expectations across the restaurant industry. - Here is What to Know Beyond Why Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) is a Trending Stock (zacks.com, 2026-10-15)
TickrTrends take: Chipotle Mexican Grill operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, where valuation metrics become particularly sensitive to economic cycles and consumer spending patterns. Given TickrTrends' current assessment that CMG is undervalued, investors focused on valuation should monitor whether the company's fundamentals justify this designation relative to sector peers and broader market conditions. The trending status of CMG suggests increased investor attention, which could create opportunities for those evaluating whether current pricing reflects the company's intrinsic worth.
More CMG news
- Chipotle Goes Big for Family Meals With the Big Ass Chipotle Bag (restaurantnews.com, 2026-10-13)
- Starbucks Denies Acquisition Talks with Chipotle, Stock Reactions Observed (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-12)
- Starbucks Clarifies No Plans to Acquire Chipotle (CMG) (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-12)
What people are saying
Follow the CMG conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for CMG showed a shift in the Relative Strength Index zone this week, moving from oversold to neutral territory. The stock maintains an undervalued valuation verdict based on current analysis. This change suggests the stock has moved away from the extreme lows that characterized the prior week's assessment.
- 2026-10-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for CMG show a shift in momentum classification, which moved from A to none this week, while the relative strength index zone moved from neutral to oversold. The current valuation verdict remains Undervalued. These changes reflect a transition in the stock's technical positioning over the past week.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is CMG stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), CMG is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value and screens as undervalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is CMG's TickrTrends verdict?
CMG's current verdict is Undervalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does CMG compare to other Consumer Cyclical stocks?
CMG ranks #8 of 85 Consumer Cyclical stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is CMG overbought or oversold?
CMG's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
When does CMG report earnings next?
CMG's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-10-28 (post-market), per the published earnings calendar.
Does CMG usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters CMG beat the consensus estimate 5 times and missed 0 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about CMG?
Of 35 analysts covering CMG, 23 rate it a buy, 12 a hold and 0 a sell - buy-leaning, with a consensus price target of $43.5 (+37.7% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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