Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) fair value analysis
Nasdaq · Updated 2026-10-19
CHDN price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
UndervaluedCHDN is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $81.70
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- 12-month range
- $73.95–$117.59
- Market cap
- $5.69B
- From 52-week high
- -30.5%
- Shares outstanding
- 69.7M
- Rank in Consumer Cyclical by discount to fair value
- #7 of 85
Last price is our stored weekly price from 2026-10-16, older than the 2026-10-19 run that built this page; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
Churchill Downs Incorporated is a racing and gaming entertainment company that operates horse racing tracks, casino properties, and online wagering platforms. The company operates properties located in multiple states across the United States, including Kentucky, Arizona, Louisiana, New Mexico, and other jurisdictions where it holds gaming licenses.
CHDN currently ranks #7 of 85 Consumer Cyclical stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Undervalued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $5.69B
- P/E (trailing)
- 12x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $2.99B
- Net margin
- 13.7%
- EPS (TTM)
- $6.72
- Gross margin
- 100.0%
- Debt / equity
- 3.57
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- 23.7%
- Shares outstanding
- 69.7M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- C
- Margin trend
- Expanding
- 52-week position
- The bottom quarter of its range
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 52 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $83.81
- 200-day average
- $89.43
- Moving-average state
- 50-day below 200-day (death cross state); price below both averages
Dividends how computed
- Paid, last 12 months
- $0.44 per share (1 payment)
- Yield on last price
- 0.54%
- Consecutive years of increases
- 2
- Last ex-dividend date
- 2025-12-05
- Last payment date
- 2026-01-06
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-10-28 (post-market)
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 5 beat, 3 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▼ miss (-1.7%)
2026-03 ▲ beat (+21.0%)
2025-12 ▲ beat (+9.0%)
2025-09 ▲ beat (+11.2%)
2025-06 ▲ beat (+3.0%)
2025-03 ▲ beat (+2.9%)
2024-12 ▼ miss (-2.9%)
2024-09 ▼ miss (-8.5%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 12 buy · 0 hold · 0 sell (12 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Buy-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $128
- Target vs last price
- +56.7%
What our data shows for CHDN
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for CHDN, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the lower third of their 12-month price range of $73.95–$117.59.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 52.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for CHDN
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent CHDN news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for CHDN is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- CHDN Maintained by Susquehanna -- Price Target Lowered to $115 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-21)
TickrTrends take: Susquehanna's reduced price target of $115 represents a pullback from previous expectations, yet TickrTrends currently classifies CHDN as undervalued based on its fundamental metrics. A valuation-focused investor should monitor whether the lower analyst price target reflects deteriorating fundamentals in the Consumer Cyclical sector or represents a tactical adjustment that leaves the stock's intrinsic value intact relative to market pricing. The maintenance of coverage alongside the target reduction suggests the analyst sees ongoing merit in the position despite near-term headwinds. - CHDN Maintains Overweight Rating -- Price Target Lowered to $118 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-20)
TickrTrends take: An analyst has lowered the price target for CHDN to 118 while keeping an overweight rating, suggesting the firm sees continued upside potential despite near-term caution on valuation metrics. TickrTrends currently derives an undervalued verdict for CHDN, indicating there may be a disconnect between the analyst's revised price target and the broader valuation assessment. For valuation-focused investors in the Consumer Cyclical sector, the maintenance of an overweight stance alongside a lower price target warrants attention to whether upcoming earnings or operational changes might clarify the stock's true intrinsic value. - Beverage Entrepreneur Mike Repole Buys 1M Shares of Churchill Downs Inc (CHDN), Shares Jump 6% (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-12)
TickrTrends take: Churchill Downs shares increased 6 percent following beverage entrepreneur Mike Repole's purchase of 1 million shares, signaling institutional confidence in the company at its current price levels. Given TickrTrends' undervalued assessment of the Consumer Cyclical operator, insider buying of this magnitude may reinforce the case for investors monitoring valuation metrics relative to historical trading ranges. Readers focused on valuation should track whether this buying activity correlates with improved fundamentals or represents a specific conviction play on the company's current discount to intrinsic value estimates.
More CHDN news
- Churchill Downs Incorporated Announces Closing of Amended and Extended Credit Facility and New Term Loan B (manilatimes.net, 2026-09-28)
- Churchill Downs (CHDN) Prices $500 Million Loan. Could Interest Costs Rise? (insidermonkey.com, 2026-09-23)
What people are saying
Follow the CHDN conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-05 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — CHDN's derived indicators showed a notable shift this week as the 50/200-day trend state transitioned from mixed to downtrend. Despite this technical deterioration, the stock maintains an undervalued valuation verdict within the Consumer Cyclical sector. The downtrend development suggests increased downward momentum in the price action relative to longer-term moving averages.
- 2026-09-21 — # CHDN - TickrTrends Indicator Summary TickrTrends' derived indicators for CHDN showed a shift in momentum this week, with the 50/200-day trend state moving from a downtrend to a mixed state, suggesting reduced directional conviction. The stock maintains an undervalued valuation verdict according to current metrics.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is CHDN stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), CHDN is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value and screens as undervalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is CHDN's TickrTrends verdict?
CHDN's current verdict is Undervalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does CHDN compare to other Consumer Cyclical stocks?
CHDN ranks #7 of 85 Consumer Cyclical stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is CHDN overbought or oversold?
CHDN's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
Does CHDN pay a dividend?
Yes. CHDN paid $0.44 per share over the last twelve months (1 payment), a 0.54% yield on TickrTrends' last price, and has raised the annual total for 2 consecutive years. The last ex-dividend date was 2025-12-05.
When does CHDN report earnings next?
CHDN's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-10-28 (post-market), per the published earnings calendar.
Does CHDN usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters CHDN beat the consensus estimate 5 times and missed 3 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about CHDN?
Of 12 analysts covering CHDN, 12 rate it a buy, 0 a hold and 0 a sell - buy-leaning, with a consensus price target of $128 (+56.7% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
More in Consumer Cyclical
Head-to-head comparisons
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