Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) fair value analysis

Nasdaq · Updated 2026-09-07

Churchill Downs Incorporated is a racing and gaming entertainment company that operates horse racing tracks, casino properties, and online wagering platforms. The company operates properties located in multiple states across the United States, including Kentucky, Arizona, Louisiana, New Mexico, and other jurisdictions where it holds gaming licenses.

Forward Fair Value verdict

Undervalued

Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model, CHDN is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value.

CHDN currently ranks #5 of 88 Consumer Cyclical stocks by discount to Forward Fair Value. It has screened as Undervalued for 3 consecutive weekly runs.

Last price: $83.47
Sector: Consumer Cyclical
12-month range: $83.47–$111.95

Derived indicators

Coarse bands from TickrTrends' weekly models; exact figures are part of the full report.

Quality grade: D
Momentum grade: B
Leverage: High
RSI zone: Neutral
50/200-day trend: Downtrend
52-week position: The bottom quarter of its range

What our data shows for CHDN

Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for CHDN, built from quarterly earnings records.
Shares are trading in the lower third of their 12-month price range of $83.47–$111.95.
The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 50.
3 of the last 12 weekly snapshots showed positive price momentum.

The exact numbers are one step away

The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for CHDN
Exact discount / premium to today's price
The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes

See the exact fair value →

How Forward Fair Value works

TickrTrends computes a Forward Fair Value for every covered stock each week: a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple is applied to the analyst-consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year. Every input window is validated for continuity and every result is screened for plausibility before publication.

Recent CHDN news

TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for CHDN is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.

Here’s Why Churchill Downs (CHDN) Traded Lower in Q2 (finance.yahoo.com, 2026-08-27)
TickrTrends take: Churchill Downs experienced trading pressure in the second quarter according to market activity, which provides context for evaluating the stock against its current valuation assessment. TickrTrends currently identifies CHDN as undervalued within the Consumer Cyclical sector, suggesting that market weakness during the period may have created a disconnect between price movement and underlying value metrics. Investors focused on valuation should monitor whether the Q2 trading decline reflects temporary market sentiment or material changes in the company's fundamentals that would affect the undervaluation thesis.
Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) Discusses Creation of Thoroughbred Championship Series Linking Iconic Races Transcript (seekingalpha.com, 2026-08-03)
TickrTrends take: Churchill Downs Incorporated operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector and is currently assessed as undervalued according to TickrTrends metrics. The company's discussion of a new Thoroughbred Championship Series linking iconic races represents a strategic initiative to enhance its racing portfolio and potentially drive engagement among bettors and racing enthusiasts. Investors monitoring the valuation should track how this championship series development translates into revenue growth and profitability improvements, as such initiatives could influence whether the current undervalued assessment reflects genuine value opportunity or near-term execution risk.
Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (seekingalpha.com, 2026-07-30)
TickrTrends take: Churchill Downs operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, where valuation metrics become particularly sensitive to economic cycles and consumer spending patterns. Given TickrTrends' current undervalued assessment, the Q2 2026 earnings call provides an opportunity for investors focused on valuation to examine whether the company's financial performance and forward guidance support the undervalued designation or suggest reasons for the market's current pricing. Key metrics to monitor in such cyclical businesses typically include revenue trends, margin stability, and management commentary on consumer demand conditions.

What people are saying

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TickrTrends weekly updates

2026-09-07 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
2026-09-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
2026-08-31 — TickrTrends initiated weekly Forward Fair Value coverage of this stock.

Frequently asked questions

Is CHDN stock undervalued?

Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-09-07), CHDN is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value and screens as undervalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.

What is CHDN's TickrTrends verdict?

CHDN's current verdict is Undervalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.

How does CHDN compare to other Consumer Cyclical stocks?

CHDN ranks #5 of 88 Consumer Cyclical stocks in TickrTrends' coverage when sorted by discount to Forward Fair Value.

Is CHDN overbought or oversold?

CHDN's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.

All Consumer Cyclical fair-value coverage →

Head-to-head comparisons

CHDN vs DECK · CHDN vs FOXF · CHDN vs GLBE · CHDN vs LE · CHDN vs LULU