Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) fair value analysis
S&P 500 · Updated 2026-10-19
DLTR price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
UndervaluedDLTR is trading at a 10–25% discount to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $118.64
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- 12-month range
- $86.80–$141.21
- Market cap
- $22.3B
- From 52-week high
- -16.0%
- Shares outstanding
- 188M
- Rank in Consumer Defensive by discount to fair value
- #18 of 61
Last price is our 2026-10-19 weekly price; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
Dollar Tree, Inc. operates a chain of discount variety stores across North America that sell merchandise at fixed price points, primarily focusing on consumable goods, seasonal items, and household products. The company operates stores under the Dollar Tree and Family Dollar banners throughout the United States and Canada.
DLTR currently ranks #18 of 61 Consumer Defensive stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Undervalued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $22.3B
- P/E (trailing)
- 17x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $20.1B
- Net margin
- 8.0%
- EPS (TTM)
- $6.90
- Gross margin
- 42.9%
- Debt / equity
- 2.24
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- -11.0%
- Shares outstanding
- 188M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- F
- Margin trend
- Expanding
- 52-week position
- The upper-middle quarter of its range
- DCF cross-check
- Overvalued
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 67 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $122.28
- 200-day average
- $116.97
- Moving-average state
- 50-day above 200-day (golden cross state); price between the averages
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-12-02
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 7 beat, 1 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-07 ▲ beat (+23.0%)
2026-04 ▲ beat (+13.7%)
2026-01 ▲ beat (+1.2%)
2025-10 ▲ beat (+12.0%)
2025-07 ▲ beat (+87.8%)
2025-04 ▲ beat (+4.1%)
2025-01 ▼ miss (-3.7%)
2024-10 ▲ beat (+3.7%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 10 buy · 15 hold · 3 sell (28 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Hold-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $135
- Target vs last price
- +13.8%
What our data shows for DLTR
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for DLTR, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the middle of their 12-month price range of $86.80–$141.21.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 67.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for DLTR
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent DLTR news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for DLTR is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- Dollar Tree Stock: Solid Company, Limited Upside (NASDAQ:DLTR) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-10-03)
TickrTrends take: Dollar Tree operates in the Consumer Defensive sector, where DLTR currently trades at a valuation that TickrTrends indicates is undervalued. An investor focused on valuation metrics should monitor whether the company's fundamentals can support a re-rating toward fair value, particularly given the defensive nature of its business model. The gap between current pricing and intrinsic value suggests potential for price appreciation if operational performance meets or exceeds market expectations. - Dollar Tree (DLTR) Amends By-Laws to Align with Virginia Law and Update Shareholder Meeting Procedures (gurufocus.com, 2026-09-26)
TickrTrends take: Dollar Tree's by-law amendments to align with Virginia law and update shareholder meeting procedures represent operational housekeeping that typically reflects a company's commitment to governance standards and regulatory compliance. According to TickrTrends' current analysis, DLTR is trading at an undervalued level within the Consumer Defensive sector, meaning investors focused on valuation metrics may find the company's shares attractive relative to its fundamentals. Shareholders should monitor whether these procedural updates facilitate more efficient capital allocation decisions or enhance management accountability in ways that could support shareholder value creation going forward. - US stocks today: US stocks end lower as oil, yields crank up pressure ahead of Fed rate move (economictimes.indiatimes.com, 2026-09-15)
TickrTrends take: Dollar Tree operates in the Consumer Defensive sector, which typically appeals to investors seeking stability during periods of economic uncertainty. Given that the broader market faced headwinds from rising oil prices and yields ahead of Fed policy decisions, defensive stocks like Dollar Tree may have faced selling pressure despite their traditional safe-haven characteristics. TickrTrends' undervalued designation suggests the current market conditions could present an opportunity for valuation-focused investors to monitor whether the sector rotation and rate environment create a more attractive entry point.
What people are saying
Follow the DLTR conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is DLTR stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), DLTR is trading at a 10–25% discount to estimated fair value and screens as undervalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is DLTR's TickrTrends verdict?
DLTR's current verdict is Undervalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does DLTR compare to other Consumer Defensive stocks?
DLTR ranks #18 of 61 Consumer Defensive stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is DLTR overbought or oversold?
DLTR's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
When does DLTR report earnings next?
DLTR's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-12-02, per the published earnings calendar.
Does DLTR usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters DLTR beat the consensus estimate 7 times and missed 1 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about DLTR?
Of 28 analysts covering DLTR, 10 rate it a buy, 15 a hold and 3 a sell - hold-leaning, with a consensus price target of $135 (+13.8% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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