Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) fair value analysis
S&P 500 · Updated 2026-09-07
Dollar Tree, Inc. operates a chain of discount variety stores across North America that sell merchandise at fixed price points, primarily focusing on consumable goods, seasonal items, and household products. The company operates stores under the Dollar Tree and Family Dollar banners throughout the United States and Canada.
Forward Fair Value verdict
UndervaluedBased on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model, DLTR is trading at a 10–25% discount to estimated fair value.
DLTR currently ranks #27 of 64 Consumer Defensive stocks by discount to Forward Fair Value. It has screened as Undervalued for 3 consecutive weekly runs.
- Last price
- $131.42
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- 12-month range
- $94.67–$131.71
Derived indicators
Coarse bands from TickrTrends' weekly models; exact figures are part of the full report.
- Quality grade
- F
- Leverage
- Moderate
- Margin trend
- Expanding
- Revenue growth
- Declining
- RSI zone
- Neutral
- 52-week position
- The top quarter of its range
- DCF cross-check
- Overvalued
What our data shows for DLTR
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for DLTR, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the upper third of their 12-month price range of $94.67–$131.71.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 54.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for DLTR
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
How Forward Fair Value works
TickrTrends computes a Forward Fair Value for every covered stock each week: a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple is applied to the analyst-consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year. Every input window is validated for continuity and every result is screened for plausibility before publication.
Recent DLTR news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for DLTR is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- Dollar Tree Director Stephanie Stahl Sells 1,185 Shares (finance.yahoo.com, 2026-09-08)
TickrTrends take: Dollar Tree insider selling activity warrants attention when evaluating the stock's undervalued status, as director transactions can signal management's confidence or concerns about future prospects. TickrTrends' current undervalued assessment suggests the market may not be fully pricing in the company's earnings potential or competitive position within the Consumer Defensive sector, making insider sales an important datapoint to monitor alongside fundamental metrics. Valuation-focused investors should track whether such transactions accelerate or remain isolated, as patterns of insider activity can either reinforce or challenge the current undervalued verdict. - Dollar General (DG) or Dollar Tree (DLTR): Which Stock Is Better? (finance.yahoo.com, 2026-09-05)
TickrTrends take: Dollar Tree operates in the Consumer Defensive sector, where TickrTrends currently derives an Undervalued verdict for the stock. The comparison with Dollar General highlights that investors evaluating DLTR should monitor how the company's valuation metrics evolve relative to peers in the discount retail space, particularly if competitive pressures or operational changes shift the fundamental drivers behind the current undervaluation assessment. For valuation-focused readers, tracking whether DLTR's current pricing reflects sustainable competitive advantages or temporary market mispricing remains important to understanding the investment thesis. - Dollar Tree, Inc. 2026 Q2 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation (NASDAQ:DLTR) 2026-08-27 (seekingalpha.com, 2026-09-04)
TickrTrends take: Dollar Tree's 2026 Q2 earnings presentation occurred as TickrTrends currently identifies the stock as undervalued within the Consumer Defensive sector. For valuation-focused investors, the key metrics to monitor from this earnings call would include comparable store sales trends, margin performance, and management's capital allocation decisions, as these factors directly influence whether the undervalued designation reflects a genuine opportunity or warrants reassessment. The Consumer Defensive classification suggests the company operates in a sector traditionally characterized by stable demand, which can support valuations when fundamentals remain sound.
What people are saying
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TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-09-07 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-06 — DLTR's valuation indicators shifted this week as the DCF cross-check band moved from an undervalued assessment to an overvalued one, suggesting increased upward pressure on the stock's fair value estimate. The momentum indicator, which had registered a B rating, has now registered as none, indicating a loss of directional price movement. Despite these mixed signals, the current overall valuation verdict remains Undervalued for the Consumer Defensive sector stock.
- 2026-08-31 — TickrTrends initiated weekly Forward Fair Value coverage of this stock.
Frequently asked questions
Is DLTR stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-09-07), DLTR is trading at a 10–25% discount to estimated fair value and screens as undervalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is DLTR's TickrTrends verdict?
DLTR's current verdict is Undervalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does DLTR compare to other Consumer Defensive stocks?
DLTR ranks #27 of 64 Consumer Defensive stocks in TickrTrends' coverage when sorted by discount to Forward Fair Value.
Is DLTR overbought or oversold?
DLTR's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
More in Consumer Defensive
Head-to-head comparisons
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