Golub Capital BDC, Inc. (GBDC) fair value analysis
Nasdaq · Updated 2026-10-19
GBDC price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
OvervaluedGBDC is trading at more than a 25% premium to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $12.12
- Sector
- Financial Services
- 12-month range
- $11.97–$14.37
- Market cap
- $3.15B
- From 52-week high
- -15.7%
- Shares outstanding
- 260M
- Rank in Financial Services by discount to fair value
- #149 of 167
Last price is our stored weekly price from 2026-10-16, older than the 2026-10-19 run that built this page; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
Golub Capital BDC, Inc. is a business development company that provides financing solutions to middle-market companies in North America. The company operates as a closed-end investment fund focused on debt and equity investments across various industries.
GBDC currently ranks #149 of 167 Financial Services stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Overvalued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $3.15B
- P/E (trailing)
- 9x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $715M
- Net margin
- 20.5%
- EPS (TTM)
- $1.42
- Gross margin
- 77.3%
- Debt / equity
- 1.22
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- -2.3%
- Shares outstanding
- 260M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- D
- Margin trend
- Contracting
- 52-week position
- The bottom quarter of its range
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 36 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $12.72
- 200-day average
- $12.88
- Moving-average state
- 50-day below 200-day (death cross state); price below both averages
Dividends how computed
- Paid, last 12 months
- $1.38 per share (4 payments)
- Yield on last price
- 11.39%
- Consecutive years of increases
- 0 (no streak on complete calendar years)
- Last ex-dividend date
- 2026-09-14
- Last payment date
- 2026-09-29
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-11-17 (post-market)
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 2 beat, 4 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▲ beat (+3.0%)
2026-03 ▼ miss (-8.3%)
2025-12 ▼ miss (-2.6%)
2025-09 ▬ met (0.0%)
2025-06 ▬ met (0.0%)
2025-03 ▼ miss (-9.8%)
2024-12 ▼ miss (-14.0%)
2024-09 ▲ beat (+2.3%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 6 buy · 1 hold · 0 sell (7 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Buy-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $13.6
- Target vs last price
- +12.2%
What our data shows for GBDC
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for GBDC, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the lower third of their 12-month price range of $11.97–$14.37.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 36.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for GBDC
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent GBDC news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for GBDC is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- Golub Capital BDC: Exactly Priced With The Credit Cycle (NASDAQ:GBDC) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-10-14)
TickrTrends take: GBDC operates in the Financial Services sector where valuation assessments are closely tied to broader economic conditions and credit market dynamics. The TickrTrends analysis currently indicates the stock is overvalued, suggesting that market pricing may not adequately reflect risks associated with the current credit cycle phase. Investors focused on valuation metrics should monitor how changes in credit conditions and portfolio performance evolve relative to the current market price. - Blackstone Secured Lending’s NAV, Valuation, And Dividend Versus 11 BDC Peers – Part 2 (seekingalpha.com, 2026-09-22)
TickrTrends take: Blackstone Secured Lending operates in the Financial Services sector alongside other business development companies, and TickrTrends currently derives an Overvalued verdict for GBDC based on its valuation metrics. A reader focused on valuation should monitor how GBDC's net asset value and dividend performance compare relative to its peer group, particularly given the current assessment that the stock may not offer adequate margin of safety at present price levels. Understanding whether GBDC trades at a premium or discount to its NAV compared to the 11 peer BDCs cited in this analysis becomes especially relevant when the valuation backdrop suggests limited upside potential. - Golub Capital BDC Inc's Dividend Analysis (gurufocus.com, 2026-09-14)
TickrTrends take: GBDC operates in the Financial Services sector, where dividend sustainability is a key metric for valuation assessment, particularly given TickrTrends' current overvalued designation. A dividend analysis of Golub Capital BDC Inc is relevant for investors monitoring whether distributions are supported by underlying earnings power, as this directly impacts whether the current valuation premium can be justified by cash generation. Readers focused on valuation should track whether dividend levels remain consistent with business fundamentals or whether they signal underlying stress in the portfolio that could warrant a revaluation.
More GBDC news
- The Hidden Reasons Why Capital Southwest Beats Golub Capital (NASDAQ:CSWC) (NASDAQ:GBDC) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-09-11)
What people are saying
Follow the GBDC conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-05 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is GBDC stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), GBDC is trading at more than a 25% premium to estimated fair value and screens as overvalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is GBDC's TickrTrends verdict?
GBDC's current verdict is Overvalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does GBDC compare to other Financial Services stocks?
GBDC ranks #149 of 167 Financial Services stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is GBDC overbought or oversold?
GBDC's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
Does GBDC pay a dividend?
Yes. GBDC paid $1.38 per share over the last twelve months (4 payments), a 11.39% yield on TickrTrends' last price. The last ex-dividend date was 2026-09-14.
When does GBDC report earnings next?
GBDC's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-11-17 (post-market), per the published earnings calendar.
Does GBDC usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters GBDC beat the consensus estimate 2 times and missed 4 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about GBDC?
Of 7 analysts covering GBDC, 6 rate it a buy, 1 a hold and 0 a sell - buy-leaning, with a consensus price target of $13.6 (+12.2% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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