Mattel, Inc. (MAT) fair value analysis
Nasdaq · Updated 2026-10-19
MAT price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
UndervaluedMAT is trading at a 10–25% discount to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $17.20
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- 12-month range
- $12.66–$22.16
- Market cap
- $4.91B
- From 52-week high
- -22.4%
- Shares outstanding
- 286M
- Rank in Consumer Cyclical by discount to fair value
- #77 of 85
Last price is our stored weekly price from 2026-10-16, older than the 2026-10-19 run that built this page; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
Mattel, Inc. is a toy and entertainment company that designs, manufactures, and sells toys and related products for children around the world. The company operates globally, with a presence across multiple continents including North America, Europe, Asia, and Latin America.
MAT currently ranks #77 of 85 Consumer Cyclical stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Undervalued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $4.91B
- P/E (trailing)
- 16x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $5.49B
- Net margin
- 7.8%
- EPS (TTM)
- $1.09
- Gross margin
- 48.2%
- Debt / equity
- 1.37
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- -13.8%
- Shares outstanding
- 286M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- F
- Margin trend
- Contracting
- 52-week position
- The lower-middle quarter of its range
- DCF cross-check
- Fairly Valued
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 78 · overbought
- 50-day average
- $14.70
- 200-day average
- $15.71
- Moving-average state
- 50-day below 200-day (death cross state); price between the averages
- Momentum score
- 87 · grade A
- Positive weeks (of 12)
- 4
Dividends how computed
- Dividend
- None in the last 12 months (last ex-date 2017-08-21)
Earnings how computed
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 5 beat, 3 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▼ miss (-66.7%)
2026-03 ▲ beat (+4.8%)
2025-12 ▼ miss (-29.1%)
2025-09 ▼ miss (-16.0%)
2025-06 ▲ beat (+18.8%)
2025-03 ▲ beat (+70.0%)
2024-12 ▲ beat (+75.0%)
2024-09 ▲ beat (+20.0%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 10 buy · 4 hold · 2 sell (16 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Buy-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $18.5
- Target vs last price
- +7.6%
What our data shows for MAT
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for MAT, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the middle of their 12-month price range of $12.66–$22.16.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at an overbought 78.
- 4 of the last 12 weekly snapshots showed positive price momentum.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for MAT
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent MAT news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for MAT is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- Mattel (MAT) Adds EdgePoint Partner Lee Matheson to Board in Strategic Collaboration (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-21)
TickrTrends take: Mattel's addition of EdgePoint Partner Lee Matheson to its board reflects the company's effort to strengthen governance and potentially unlock shareholder value, which aligns with TickrTrends' current undervalued assessment of the Consumer Cyclical stock. Strategic board additions in the toy and entertainment sector often signal management's focus on operational improvements or strategic initiatives that could support margin expansion and cash flow generation. Investors tracking the company's valuation should monitor whether this partnership influences capital allocation decisions or operational efficiency metrics in upcoming quarters. - Southeastern Asset Management Prepares Proxy Battle at Mattel Inc (MAT) (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-21)
TickrTrends take: Southeastern Asset Management's proxy battle signals activist investor pressure at Mattel, a development that typically attracts valuation-focused investors who believe management changes could unlock shareholder value. Given TickrTrends' current undervalued assessment, such activist involvement may validate concerns that the stock's current price does not reflect its potential under different strategic direction or operational improvements. Investors monitoring this situation should track whether the proxy contest prompts management to articulate concrete plans for margin expansion or asset optimization in the Consumer Cyclical sector. - ServiceNow CFO: Overwork doesn’t make you a better leader (fortune.com, 2026-10-20)
TickrTrends take: # Analysis Context for MAT The headline about ServiceNow's CFO commentary on workplace culture does not directly relate to Mattel's business operations, financial metrics, or valuation drivers. Mattel operates in consumer cyclical toys and entertainment, while ServiceNow is a software and enterprise services company, making this news item irrelevant to assessing MAT's current undervalued designation. Investors focused on Mattel's valuation should monitor factors specific to the toy industry, consumer spending trends, and the company's own operational performance rather than leadership commentary from unrelated sectors.
More MAT news
- Mattel (MAT) Names Peter Griffith as New CFO Ahead of Transition (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-19)
- Longleaf Partners Global Fund Q3 2026 Commentary (seekingalpha.com, 2026-10-14)
- MAT Maintained by Citigroup -- Price Target Raised to $17.00 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-13)
- Seaport Research Upgrades Mattel (MAT) to Buy Amid Toy Sector Optimism (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-12)
- Mattel gains on report Zuru may make takeover bid (MAT:NASDAQ) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-10-07)
What people are saying
Follow the MAT conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for MAT showed several shifts this week. The DCF cross-check band moved from undervalued to fairly valued territory, while momentum improved from none to A, and the RSI zone transitioned from neutral to overbought conditions. The sector discount rank declined from number 29 to number 39, indicating a reduced position relative to other Consumer Cyclical stocks. Despite these changes reflecting mixed signals between valuation tightening and strengthening momentum, the current valuation verdict remains undervalued.
- 2026-10-05 — MAT's trend state shifted from downtrend to mixed this week, suggesting a potential stabilization in price momentum. The stock's sector discount rank declined from 21st to 31st, indicating it has become relatively less undervalued compared to other consumer cyclical stocks, though it maintains an overall undervalued verdict.
- 2026-09-28 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for MAT show a shift toward weaker momentum this week, as the 50/200-day trend state moved from mixed to downtrend. Despite this technical deterioration, the stock maintains an Undervalued assessment based on current valuation metrics. The change signals increasing near-term selling pressure relative to longer-term price levels in the Consumer Cyclical sector name.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is MAT stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), MAT is trading at a 10–25% discount to estimated fair value and screens as undervalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is MAT's TickrTrends verdict?
MAT's current verdict is Undervalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does MAT compare to other Consumer Cyclical stocks?
MAT ranks #77 of 85 Consumer Cyclical stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is MAT overbought or oversold?
MAT's 14-day RSI is in the overbought zone on TickrTrends' latest weekly data.
Does MAT pay a dividend?
MAT has paid no dividend in the last twelve months; its last ex-dividend date on file was 2017-08-21.
Does MAT usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters MAT beat the consensus estimate 5 times and missed 3 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about MAT?
Of 16 analysts covering MAT, 10 rate it a buy, 4 a hold and 2 a sell - buy-leaning, with a consensus price target of $18.5 (+7.6% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
More in Consumer Cyclical
Head-to-head comparisons
MAT vs AVY · MAT vs ETSY · MAT vs EXPE · MAT vs HD · MAT vs JD