Mattel, Inc. (MAT) fair value analysis

Nasdaq · Updated 2026-09-07

Mattel, Inc. is a toy and entertainment company that designs, manufactures, and sells toys and related products for children around the world. The company operates globally, with a presence across multiple continents including North America, Europe, Asia, and Latin America.

Forward Fair Value verdict

Undervalued

Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model, MAT is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value.

MAT currently ranks #23 of 88 Consumer Cyclical stocks by discount to Forward Fair Value. It has screened as Undervalued for 3 consecutive weekly runs.

Last price: $14.88
Sector: Consumer Cyclical
12-month range: $13.74–$21.24

Derived indicators

Coarse bands from TickrTrends' weekly models; exact figures are part of the full report.

Quality grade: D
Leverage: Moderate
Margin trend: Stable
Revenue growth: Modest
RSI zone: Neutral
50/200-day trend: Mixed
52-week position: The bottom quarter of its range
DCF cross-check: Undervalued

What our data shows for MAT

Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for MAT, built from quarterly earnings records.
Shares are trading in the lower third of their 12-month price range of $13.74–$21.24.
The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 48.

The exact numbers are one step away

The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for MAT
Exact discount / premium to today's price
The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes

See the exact fair value →

How Forward Fair Value works

TickrTrends computes a Forward Fair Value for every covered stock each week: a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple is applied to the analyst-consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year. Every input window is validated for continuity and every result is screened for plausibility before publication.

Recent MAT news

TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for MAT is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.

MAT Looks 33.5% Undervalued on GF Value™ (gurufocus.com, 2026-08-28)
TickrTrends take: Mattel's valuation appears substantially depressed relative to its intrinsic value according to this analysis, which aligns with TickrTrends' current assessment that the stock trades below its fair value estimate. For investors focused on valuation metrics, the Consumer Cyclical sector positioning means MAT's discount may reflect broader cyclical concerns about discretionary spending rather than company-specific fundamentals alone. Monitoring whether this valuation gap persists or narrows will be important for tracking whether the market reprices the company's underlying value drivers.
Mattel's Whitney Houston Barbie Collector’s Doll Goes On Sale (forbes.com, 2026-08-09)
TickrTrends take: Mattel released a Whitney Houston Barbie collector's doll, representing another entry into the premium collectible segment that has driven licensing revenue growth for the company. TickrTrends currently rates MAT as undervalued within the Consumer Cyclical sector, suggesting the market may not be fully pricing in the potential of specialty product lines that appeal to adult collectors and generate higher margins than standard retail offerings. Investors monitoring the valuation should track whether such limited-edition releases demonstrate sustained demand and translate into improved profitability metrics in upcoming quarters.
QVC Emerges From Bankruptcy With $600M Asset-Backed Facility (pymnts.com, 2026-08-07)
TickrTrends take: QVC's emergence from bankruptcy with a $600 million asset-backed facility demonstrates the company's ability to restructure its debt obligations, which is relevant context for investors monitoring Mattel's retail partnerships and distribution channels. As a Consumer Cyclical company, Mattel's performance is tied to retail health and consumer spending patterns, making QVC's financial stabilization potentially meaningful for toy and entertainment product placement. TickrTrends' current undervalued designation for Mattel suggests investors should monitor how major retail partners navigate their own capital structures, as this can affect order volumes and payment terms for suppliers like Mattel.

What people are saying

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TickrTrends weekly updates

2026-09-07 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
2026-09-06 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for MAT show that momentum support has been removed this week, as the stock transitioned from an A rating to none. Despite this change in momentum assessment, the current valuation verdict remains that MAT is undervalued within the Consumer Cyclical sector.
2026-08-31 — TickrTrends initiated weekly Forward Fair Value coverage of this stock.

Frequently asked questions

Is MAT stock undervalued?

Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-09-07), MAT is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value and screens as undervalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.

What is MAT's TickrTrends verdict?

MAT's current verdict is Undervalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.

How does MAT compare to other Consumer Cyclical stocks?

MAT ranks #23 of 88 Consumer Cyclical stocks in TickrTrends' coverage when sorted by discount to Forward Fair Value.

Is MAT overbought or oversold?

MAT's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.

All Consumer Cyclical fair-value coverage →

Head-to-head comparisons

MAT vs AMZN · MAT vs APTV · MAT vs EYE · MAT vs GNTX · MAT vs LKQ