McDonald's Corporation (MCD) fair value analysis
S&P 500 · Updated 2026-10-19
MCD price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
UndervaluedMCD is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $235.23
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- 12-month range
- $230.88–$341.06
- Market cap
- $166B
- From 52-week high
- -31.0%
- Shares outstanding
- 708M
- Rank in Consumer Cyclical by discount to fair value
- #22 of 85
Last price is our 2026-10-19 weekly price; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
McDonald's Corporation operates a global system of fast-food restaurants that serve hamburgers, chicken products, breakfast items, and beverages to millions of customers daily. The company maintains restaurants across more than 100 countries on six continents, making it one of the world's largest restaurant chains by geographic reach and customer volume.
MCD currently ranks #22 of 85 Consumer Cyclical stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Undervalued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $166B
- P/E (trailing)
- 19x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $27.7B
- Net margin
- 31.7%
- EPS (TTM)
- $12.55
- Gross margin
- 58.0%
- Debt / equity
- 0.00
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- 2.0%
- Shares outstanding
- 708M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- B
- Margin trend
- Stable
- 52-week position
- The bottom quarter of its range
- DCF cross-check
- Overvalued
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 49 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $252.46
- 200-day average
- $285.95
- Moving-average state
- 50-day below 200-day (death cross state); price below both averages
Dividends how computed
- Paid, last 12 months
- $7.44 per share (4 payments)
- Yield on last price
- 3.16%
- Consecutive years of increases
- 24
- Next ex-dividend date
- 2026-12-01
- Last payment date
- 2026-09-16
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-11-04
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 5 beat, 2 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▲ beat (+1.8%)
2026-03 ▲ beat (+3.3%)
2025-12 ▲ beat (+2.3%)
2025-09 ▼ miss (-3.9%)
2025-06 ▲ beat (+1.3%)
2025-03 ▬ met (0.0%)
2024-12 ▼ miss (-1.0%)
2024-09 ▲ beat (+0.9%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 19 buy · 14 hold · 1 sell (34 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Buy-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $292
- Target vs last price
- +24.1%
What our data shows for MCD
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for MCD, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the lower third of their 12-month price range of $230.88–$341.06.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 49.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for MCD
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent MCD news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for MCD is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- Tune Out The Noise, This Is What Matters For McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-10-19)
TickrTrends take: McDonald's currently trades at a valuation that TickrTrends rates as undervalued within the Consumer Cyclical sector, suggesting the market may not be fully pricing in the company's fundamental strength. For valuation-focused investors, the key consideration is whether McDonald's operational performance and cash generation can justify closing any gap between current market price and intrinsic value, particularly given the sector's sensitivity to economic cycles. Monitoring the company's ability to maintain pricing power and comparable store sales growth will be critical to determining if the undervalued assessment reflects a genuine opportunity or temporary market mispricing. - McDonald's: An Underrated Opportunity Hiding In Plain Sight (NYSE:MCD) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-10-18)
TickrTrends take: McDonald's current undervalued status according to TickrTrends aligns with analyst perspectives identifying hidden value in the stock, suggesting the market may not be fully pricing in the company's fundamentals within the Consumer Cyclical sector. For valuation-focused investors, monitoring whether the stock's current pricing reflects McDonald's earnings power and competitive positioning will be key to understanding if this undervaluation persists or represents a temporary market mispricing. The gap between the company's intrinsic characteristics and market perception warrants attention to see how long this valuation disconnect remains. - McDonald's: Not All Of The Slump Is Macro, And That's The Good News (NYSE:MCD) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-10-12)
TickrTrends take: McDonald's trading at an undervalued level according to TickrTrends suggests the market may be overweighting temporary headwinds in the Consumer Cyclical sector. If the company's operational challenges stem partly from company-specific factors rather than purely macroeconomic conditions, this distinction becomes important for assessing whether current pricing reflects a true margin of safety or simply cyclical pessimism. Investors monitoring this valuation should track whether management can demonstrate improvement in controllable operational metrics, as separating idiosyncratic performance from broader sector weakness will be critical to determining if the undervaluation thesis holds.
More MCD news
- McDonald's: Same-Store Sales Are An Overrated Metric (NYSE:MCD) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-10-08)
- McDonald’s: The Chip Trade I Can Stomach (NYSE:MCD) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-10-07)
What people are saying
Follow the MCD conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — MCD's relative strength index moved from oversold territory into neutral zone this week, suggesting the stock has recovered from extremely weak momentum conditions. With the current valuation verdict remaining undervalued, this shift in RSI positioning indicates a stabilization in price momentum as the stock continues trading below levels justified by its fundamentals.
- 2026-10-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — MCD's Relative Strength Index has moved from neutral territory into oversold zone this week, indicating that the stock has experienced significant recent selling pressure. The shift to oversold conditions suggests that MCD may be approaching a potential bounce, though the stock remains rated as undervalued on current valuation metrics.
- 2026-09-21 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for MCD showed a shift this week as the RSI zone moved from oversold to neutral territory. The stock maintains an undervalued valuation verdict based on current analysis. This movement in the RSI suggests a change in momentum dynamics for the Consumer Cyclical sector company.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is MCD stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), MCD is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value and screens as undervalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is MCD's TickrTrends verdict?
MCD's current verdict is Undervalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does MCD compare to other Consumer Cyclical stocks?
MCD ranks #22 of 85 Consumer Cyclical stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is MCD overbought or oversold?
MCD's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
Does MCD pay a dividend?
Yes. MCD paid $7.44 per share over the last twelve months (4 payments), a 3.16% yield on TickrTrends' last price, and has raised the annual total for 24 consecutive years. The next ex-dividend date on file is 2026-12-01.
When does MCD report earnings next?
MCD's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-11-04, per the published earnings calendar.
Does MCD usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters MCD beat the consensus estimate 5 times and missed 2 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about MCD?
Of 34 analysts covering MCD, 19 rate it a buy, 14 a hold and 1 a sell - buy-leaning, with a consensus price target of $292 (+24.1% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
More in Consumer Cyclical
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