Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) fair value analysis
S&P 500 · Updated 2026-10-19
NOC price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
UndervaluedNOC is trading at a 10–25% discount to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $480.72
- Sector
- Industrials
- 12-month range
- $473.46–$768.02
- Market cap
- $68.3B
- From 52-week high
- -37.4%
- Shares outstanding
- 142M
- Rank in Industrials by discount to fair value
- #35 of 106
Last price is our 2026-10-19 weekly price; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
Northrop Grumman Corporation is a defense and aerospace contractor that designs, manufactures, and integrates products and services for military, government, and commercial customers. The company operates globally with significant operations in the United States and maintains a presence in international markets.
NOC currently ranks #35 of 106 Industrials stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Undervalued for 6 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $68.3B
- P/E (trailing)
- 17x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $42.9B
- Net margin
- 10.5%
- EPS (TTM)
- $28.72
- Gross margin
- 19.5%
- Debt / equity
- 0.91
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- 3.8%
- Shares outstanding
- 142M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- F
- Margin trend
- Stable
- 52-week position
- The bottom quarter of its range
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 55 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $526.18
- 200-day average
- $594.03
- Moving-average state
- 50-day below 200-day (death cross state); price below both averages
Dividends how computed
- Paid, last 12 months
- $9.56 per share (4 payments)
- Yield on last price
- 1.99%
- Consecutive years of increases
- 13
- Last ex-dividend date
- 2026-08-31
- Last payment date
- 2026-09-16
Earnings how computed
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 7 beat, 1 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▲ beat (+12.3%)
2026-03 ▲ beat (+1.3%)
2025-12 ▲ beat (+3.9%)
2025-09 ▲ beat (+18.7%)
2025-06 ▲ beat (+19.9%)
2025-03 ▼ miss (-47.0%)
2024-12 ▲ beat (+0.6%)
2024-09 ▲ beat (+15.3%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 14 buy · 10 hold · 0 sell (24 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Buy-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $619
- Target vs last price
- +28.8%
What our data shows for NOC
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for NOC, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the lower third of their 12-month price range of $473.46–$768.02.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 55.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for NOC
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent NOC news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for NOC is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- Northrop Grumman Q3 2026: Crushing Baseline Models With A $109.6B Backlog And Margin Inflection (NYSE:NOC) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-10-22)
TickrTrends take: Northrop Grumman reported a third quarter 2026 backlog of 109 billion 600 million dollars, which represents a substantial order pipeline that supports future revenue visibility in the defense and aerospace segments. TickrTrends currently assesses NOC as undervalued within the Industrials sector, suggesting the market may not be fully pricing in the earnings potential from this significant backlog. For valuation-focused investors, the margin inflection mentioned in the results warrants attention to whether management can sustain improved profitability metrics as this backlog converts to revenue. - Northrop Grumman (NOC): Is This Dividend Stock Trading at a Discount? (insidermonkey.com, 2026-10-21)
TickrTrends take: Northrop Grumman operates in the Industrials sector where TickrTrends currently identifies the stock as undervalued, suggesting potential upside for investors evaluating the company's price relative to fundamental metrics. The question of whether NOC trades at a discount becomes particularly relevant when considering that valuation gaps in this sector can reflect either temporary mispricing or overlooked operational strengths. Dividend-paying industrial stocks often warrant close attention to both yield sustainability and capital allocation decisions, as these factors directly influence whether undervaluation reflects genuine opportunity or warrants caution. - Northrop Grumman (NOC) Reports Strong Q3 2026 with Record Backlog and Raised Guidance (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-20)
TickrTrends take: Northrop Grumman's record backlog and raised guidance suggest the company has secured substantial future revenue streams, which typically supports higher valuation multiples in the defense contracting sector. Given TickrTrends' current undervalued assessment, investors should monitor whether the market reprices NOC to reflect this improved earnings visibility and the durability of its backlog conversion into cash flow. The combination of strong operational execution and potentially lagging market recognition creates the type of disconnect that valuation-focused analysis aims to identify.
More NOC news
- Q3 2026 Northrop Grumman Corp Earnings Call Transcript (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-20)
- Northrop Grumman (NOC) Reports Strong Q3 Earnings, Shares Steady Amid Dividend Appeal (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-20)
- Northrop Grumman (NOC) Is Down This Year and Trades Below Its History and Peers. Time to Buy the Dip? (insidermonkey.com, 2026-10-17)
- GE Aerospace (GE) and Peers Set to Report Q3 Earnings Amid Mixed Analyst Revisions (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-16)
- Vertical Aerospace (EVTL) Shares Jump 10.7% on New Supplier Deals with ANH Structure and Northrop Grumman (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-16)
- Northrop Grumman (NOC) Secures $21M U.S. Army Contract to Advance IBCS Modernization (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-13)
- Northrop Grumman Q3 Preview: Bad News Already Priced In, Defense Is A Buy (NYSE:NOC) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-10-13)
- Top 10 Large-Cap Stocks to Buy At 52-Week Lows (insidermonkey.com, 2026-10-12)
What people are saying
Follow the NOC conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — # NOC Weekly Indicator Summary TickrTrends' derived indicators for NOC show a notable shift this week as the DCF cross-check band moved from an overvalued classification to none. Despite this change in the DCF assessment, the current valuation verdict remains undervalued, suggesting that other valuation indicators continue to support a lower-than-fair valuation estimate for the Industrials sector company.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for NOC showed movement this week in two key metrics. The DCF cross-check band shifted from none to overvalued, while the sector discount rank improved from 47th to 39th position within the Industrials sector. Despite these indicator changes, the current valuation verdict remains at undervalued.
- 2026-10-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is NOC stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), NOC is trading at a 10–25% discount to estimated fair value and screens as undervalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is NOC's TickrTrends verdict?
NOC's current verdict is Undervalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does NOC compare to other Industrials stocks?
NOC ranks #35 of 106 Industrials stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is NOC overbought or oversold?
NOC's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
Does NOC pay a dividend?
Yes. NOC paid $9.56 per share over the last twelve months (4 payments), a 1.99% yield on TickrTrends' last price, and has raised the annual total for 13 consecutive years. The last ex-dividend date was 2026-08-31.
Does NOC usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters NOC beat the consensus estimate 7 times and missed 1 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about NOC?
Of 24 analysts covering NOC, 14 rate it a buy, 10 a hold and 0 a sell - buy-leaning, with a consensus price target of $619 (+28.8% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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