Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) fair value analysis
S&P 500 · Updated 2026-10-19
NSC price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
OvervaluedNSC is trading at a 10–25% premium to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $317.79
- Sector
- Industrials
- 12-month range
- $278.19–$352.98
- Market cap
- $71.4B
- From 52-week high
- -10.0%
- Shares outstanding
- 225M
- Rank in Industrials by discount to fair value
- #78 of 106
Last price is our 2026-10-19 weekly price; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
Norfolk Southern Corporation is a major freight railroad company that operates a network of rail lines in the eastern United States, transporting cargo including coal, automobiles, chemicals, and intermodal containers. The company serves customers across the Southeast, Midwest, and Northeast regions of the United States through its extensive rail infrastructure.
NSC currently ranks #78 of 106 Industrials stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Overvalued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $71.4B
- P/E (trailing)
- 25x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $12.5B
- Net margin
- 21.0%
- EPS (TTM)
- $12.69
- Gross margin
- 66.8%
- Debt / equity
- 1.02
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- 5.5%
- Shares outstanding
- 225M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- F
- Margin trend
- Expanding
- 52-week position
- The upper-middle quarter of its range
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 62 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $327.18
- 200-day average
- $312.80
- Moving-average state
- 50-day above 200-day (golden cross state); price between the averages
Dividends how computed
- Paid, last 12 months
- $5.40 per share (4 payments)
- Yield on last price
- 1.70%
- Consecutive years of increases
- 0 (no streak on complete calendar years)
- Last ex-dividend date
- 2026-08-07
- Last payment date
- 2026-08-20
Earnings how computed
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 7 beat, 1 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▲ beat (+9.0%)
2026-03 ▲ beat (+6.4%)
2025-12 ▲ beat (+16.7%)
2025-09 ▲ beat (+3.1%)
2025-06 ▼ miss (-0.6%)
2025-03 ▲ beat (+0.4%)
2024-12 ▲ beat (+3.4%)
2024-09 ▲ beat (+4.5%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 5 buy · 16 hold · 0 sell (21 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Hold-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $356
- Target vs last price
- +12.0%
What our data shows for NSC
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for NSC, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the middle of their 12-month price range of $278.19–$352.98.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 62.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for NSC
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent NSC news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for NSC is currently mixed, computed from recent coverage.
- Norfolk Southern Corporation 2026 Q3 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation (NYSE:NSC) 2026-10-22 (seekingalpha.com, 2026-10-22)
TickrTrends take: Norfolk Southern's Q3 2026 results provide an opportunity to assess whether the company's operational performance justifies its current overvalued status according to TickrTrends analysis. Investors focused on valuation should examine whether earnings growth, margin trends, and capital allocation decisions narrow or widen the gap between the stock's market price and its fundamental value. Given the Industrials sector's cyclical nature, the earnings call details on freight demand, pricing power, and cost management will be particularly relevant to determining if the overvaluation premium persists. - Norfolk Southern: The Spread Says Wait, Not Walk Away (NYSE:NSC) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-10-02)
TickrTrends take: Norfolk Southern operates in the Industrials sector and currently carries an Overvalued designation according to TickrTrends valuation metrics. The headline's cautionary tone aligns with this assessment, suggesting investors should monitor developments before committing capital rather than taking immediate action. For valuation-focused observers, watching how the company's metrics evolve relative to sector peers will be important in determining if current pricing becomes more justified. - Can Union Pacific (UNP) and Norfolk Southern (NSC) Redraw America’s Railroad Map? (insidermonkey.com, 2026-09-29)
TickrTrends take: Norfolk Southern operates in a competitive railroad industry where operational efficiency and market consolidation discussions can significantly impact profitability and valuation multiples. Given TickrTrends' current assessment of NSC as overvalued, investors should monitor whether the company can demonstrate margin expansion or revenue growth strong enough to justify current pricing relative to its peers and historical valuations. Any regulatory developments affecting potential industry consolidation or changes in freight volumes would be key factors to watch in determining whether the current valuation gap can be justified by operational improvements.
More NSC news
- Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) Presents at Morgan Stanley's 14th Annual Laguna Conference Transcript (seekingalpha.com, 2026-09-16)
What people are saying
Follow the NSC conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for NSC show a deterioration this week with the quality grade declining from D to F. The relative strength index zone shifted from oversold to neutral. The current valuation verdict remains overvalued.
- 2026-10-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-21 — NSC's relative strength index has moved into oversold territory this week, shifting from a neutral zone. The stock remains classified as overvalued based on current valuation metrics.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is NSC stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), NSC is trading at a 10–25% premium to estimated fair value and screens as overvalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is NSC's TickrTrends verdict?
NSC's current verdict is Overvalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does NSC compare to other Industrials stocks?
NSC ranks #78 of 106 Industrials stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is NSC overbought or oversold?
NSC's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
Does NSC pay a dividend?
Yes. NSC paid $5.40 per share over the last twelve months (4 payments), a 1.70% yield on TickrTrends' last price. The last ex-dividend date was 2026-08-07.
Does NSC usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters NSC beat the consensus estimate 7 times and missed 1 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about NSC?
Of 21 analysts covering NSC, 5 rate it a buy, 16 a hold and 0 a sell - hold-leaning, with a consensus price target of $356 (+12.0% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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