Aflac Incorporated (AFL) fair value analysis
S&P 500 · Updated 2026-10-19
AFL price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
OvervaluedAFL is trading at a 10–25% premium to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $114.54
- Sector
- Financial Services
- 12-month range
- $105.70–$129.55
- Market cap
- $57.4B
- From 52-week high
- -11.6%
- Shares outstanding
- 501M
- Rank in Financial Services by discount to fair value
- #123 of 167
Last price is our 2026-10-19 weekly price; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
Aflac Incorporated is an insurance company that provides supplemental health and life insurance products to individuals and groups. The company operates primarily in the United States and Japan, where it serves customers through both direct sales and workplace distribution channels.
AFL currently ranks #123 of 167 Financial Services stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Overvalued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $57.4B
- P/E (trailing)
- 15x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $18.1B
- Net margin
- 26.9%
- EPS (TTM)
- $7.56
- Gross margin
- 54.6%
- Debt / equity
- 0.29
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- -6.3%
- Shares outstanding
- 501M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- B
- Margin trend
- Expanding
- 52-week position
- The lower-middle quarter of its range
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 64 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $116.54
- 200-day average
- $115.31
- Moving-average state
- 50-day above 200-day (golden cross state); price between the averages
Dividends how computed
- Paid, last 12 months
- $2.41 per share (4 payments)
- Yield on last price
- 2.10%
- Consecutive years of increases
- 6
- Last ex-dividend date
- 2026-08-19
- Last payment date
- 2026-09-01
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-11-04 (post-market)
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 3 beat, 5 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▼ miss (-1.1%)
2026-03 ▼ miss (-2.8%)
2025-12 ▼ miss (-7.6%)
2025-09 ▲ beat (+39.9%)
2025-06 ▲ beat (+4.1%)
2025-03 ▼ miss (-0.6%)
2024-12 ▼ miss (-3.7%)
2024-09 ▲ beat (+28.6%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 3 buy · 8 hold · 4 sell (15 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Hold-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $117
- Target vs last price
- +2.1%
What our data shows for AFL
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for AFL, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the middle of their 12-month price range of $105.70–$129.55.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 64.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for AFL
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent AFL news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for AFL is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- AM Best Affirms Credit Ratings of Aflac Incorporated and Its Subsidiaries (ambest.com, 2026-10-14)
TickrTrends take: AM Best's affirmation of Aflac's credit ratings provides stability to the company's financial standing, though this maintenance of existing ratings rather than an upgrade offers limited catalyst for valuation improvement. Given TickrTrends' current overvalued assessment, investors should monitor whether Aflac can demonstrate earnings growth or operational improvements substantial enough to justify its current valuation multiples in the Financial Services sector. The affirmed ratings support the company's ability to service obligations, but do not address whether the market is pricing in realistic expectations for future performance. - Jim Cramer on Aflac (AFL): “Not Great, Not Bad” (finance.yahoo.com, 2026-09-17)
TickrTrends take: Aflac operates in the Financial Services sector and TickrTrends currently derives an Overvalued verdict for the stock. When a prominent analyst characterizes a company's performance with middling language, it may reinforce concerns about whether current valuation already reflects modest growth expectations. Investors focused on valuation should monitor whether Aflac's earnings trajectory can justify its present pricing or if the stock may face pressure from reassessment. - Aflac Incorporated at KBW Insurance Conference Transcript (gurufocus.com, 2026-09-10)
TickrTrends take: Aflac's participation in the KBW Insurance Conference provides an opportunity for investors to assess whether management commentary supports the company's current market valuation relative to its fundamentals. Given TickrTrends' overvalued assessment, scrutiny of guidance updates, profitability trends, and competitive positioning within the Financial Services sector becomes particularly relevant to determine if the premium valuation is justified by operational performance. Valuation-focused readers should monitor whether management addresses cost pressures, claims development, or capital allocation strategies that could either validate or challenge the current overvalued designation.
More AFL news
- Aflac President: why AI shouldn’t drive your healthcare (fortune.com, 2026-09-10)
What people are saying
Follow the AFL conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for AFL showed improvement this week, with the quality grade rising from C to B. Despite this positive movement in quality assessment, the stock remains classified as overvalued according to current valuation metrics.
- 2026-10-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — AFL's sector discount rank declined this week, moving from 120th to 127th among Financial Services companies, indicating a slightly weaker relative valuation position within its sector. The stock remains classified as overvalued according to current valuation metrics.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is AFL stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), AFL is trading at a 10–25% premium to estimated fair value and screens as overvalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is AFL's TickrTrends verdict?
AFL's current verdict is Overvalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does AFL compare to other Financial Services stocks?
AFL ranks #123 of 167 Financial Services stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is AFL overbought or oversold?
AFL's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
Does AFL pay a dividend?
Yes. AFL paid $2.41 per share over the last twelve months (4 payments), a 2.10% yield on TickrTrends' last price, and has raised the annual total for 6 consecutive years. The last ex-dividend date was 2026-08-19.
When does AFL report earnings next?
AFL's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-11-04 (post-market), per the published earnings calendar.
Does AFL usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters AFL beat the consensus estimate 3 times and missed 5 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about AFL?
Of 15 analysts covering AFL, 3 rate it a buy, 8 a hold and 4 a sell - hold-leaning, with a consensus price target of $117 (+2.1% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
More in Financial Services
Head-to-head comparisons
AFL vs BCAL · AFL vs CHCO · AFL vs EFSC · AFL vs ESQ · AFL vs FBNC