The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) fair value analysis
Nasdaq · Updated 2026-10-19
CAKE price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
OvervaluedCAKE is trading at more than a 25% premium to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $114.92
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- 12-month range
- $43.14–$117.29
- Market cap
- $5.72B
- From 52-week high
- -2.0%
- Shares outstanding
- 49.8M
- Rank in Consumer Cyclical by discount to fair value
- #72 of 85
Last price is our stored weekly price from 2026-10-16, older than the 2026-10-19 run that built this page; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated is a restaurant company that operates casual dining establishments serving American cuisine, with a particular emphasis on cheesecakes and desserts. The company operates restaurants located throughout the United States as well as in international markets.
CAKE currently ranks #72 of 85 Consumer Cyclical stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Overvalued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $5.72B
- P/E (trailing)
- 28x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $3.88B
- Net margin
- 4.6%
- EPS (TTM)
- $4.17
- Gross margin
- 17.6%
- Debt / equity
- 4.01
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- 8.0%
- Shares outstanding
- 49.8M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- F
- Margin trend
- Contracting
- 52-week position
- The top quarter of its range
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 78 · overbought
- 50-day average
- $107.70
- 200-day average
- $76.91
- Moving-average state
- 50-day above 200-day (golden cross state); price above both averages
Dividends how computed
- Paid, last 12 months
- $1.17 per share (4 payments)
- Yield on last price
- 1.02%
- Consecutive years of increases
- 0 (no streak on complete calendar years)
- Last ex-dividend date
- 2026-08-11
- Last payment date
- 2026-08-25
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-10-27 (post-market)
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 8 beat, 0 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▲ beat (+23.1%)
2026-03 ▲ beat (+4.0%)
2025-12 ▲ beat (+2.0%)
2025-09 ▲ beat (+13.3%)
2025-06 ▲ beat (+9.4%)
2025-03 ▲ beat (+13.4%)
2024-12 ▲ beat (+14.3%)
2024-09 ▲ beat (+18.4%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 4 buy · 13 hold · 1 sell (18 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Hold-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $99.2
- Target vs last price
- -13.7%
What our data shows for CAKE
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for CAKE, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the upper third of their 12-month price range of $43.14–$117.29.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at an overbought 78.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for CAKE
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent CAKE news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for CAKE is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) Hits Fresh High: Is There Still Room to Run? (zacks.com, 2026-10-19)
TickrTrends take: CAKE trading at fresh highs comes as TickrTrends currently marks the stock as overvalued based on its valuation metrics analysis. For investors focused on valuation discipline, the combination of elevated price levels and an overvalued rating suggests limited margin of safety at current prices. Monitoring whether the stock's fundamentals can justify its recent price advance will be important for those tracking valuation-to-price alignment in the Consumer Cyclical sector. - The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) Presents at Barclays 19th Annual Global Consumer Staples Conference Transcript (seekingalpha.com, 2026-09-08)
TickrTrends take: The Cheesecake Factory's presentation at a major industry conference occurs while TickrTrends currently assesses the stock as overvalued within the Consumer Cyclical sector. For valuation-focused investors, the key consideration is whether management commentary provides justification for closing the gap between current market pricing and underlying fundamentals. Conference presentations typically address operational efficiency, unit economics, and growth prospects, metrics that would be material to reassessing whether the overvalued designation remains appropriate.
What people are saying
Follow the CAKE conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for CAKE shifted this week as the RSI zone moved from neutral to overbought territory, suggesting increased buying pressure in the Consumer Cyclical sector stock. The current valuation verdict remains Overvalued, indicating the stock price may exceed its fundamental value based on available metrics.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-05 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is CAKE stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), CAKE is trading at more than a 25% premium to estimated fair value and screens as overvalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is CAKE's TickrTrends verdict?
CAKE's current verdict is Overvalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does CAKE compare to other Consumer Cyclical stocks?
CAKE ranks #72 of 85 Consumer Cyclical stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is CAKE overbought or oversold?
CAKE's 14-day RSI is in the overbought zone on TickrTrends' latest weekly data.
Does CAKE pay a dividend?
Yes. CAKE paid $1.17 per share over the last twelve months (4 payments), a 1.02% yield on TickrTrends' last price. The last ex-dividend date was 2026-08-11.
When does CAKE report earnings next?
CAKE's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-10-27 (post-market), per the published earnings calendar.
Does CAKE usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters CAKE beat the consensus estimate 8 times and missed 0 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about CAKE?
Of 18 analysts covering CAKE, 4 rate it a buy, 13 a hold and 1 a sell - hold-leaning, with a consensus price target of $99.2 (-13.7% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
More in Consumer Cyclical
Head-to-head comparisons
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