Marriott International, Inc. (MAR) fair value analysis

S&P 500 · Updated 2026-10-19

MAR price how computed

Last close $388.05 +$2.34 (+0.61%) since 2026-10-15

1M +14.50%3M +5.50%6M +2.46%1Y +49.80%

Forward Fair Value verdict

Overvalued

MAR is trading at a 10–25% premium to estimated fair value.

Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.

Last price: $365.88
Sector: Consumer Cyclical
12-month range: $260.58–$402.54
Market cap: $95.4B
From 52-week high: -9.1%
Shares outstanding: 261M
Rank in Consumer Cyclical by discount to fair value: #62 of 85

Last price is our 2026-10-19 weekly price; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.

Marriott International, Inc. operates one of the world's largest hotel and lodging businesses, managing and franchising properties across multiple brands that serve diverse market segments from luxury to budget accommodations. The company operates properties across North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America.

MAR currently ranks #62 of 85 Consumer Cyclical stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Overvalued for 6 consecutive weekly runs.

Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed

Market cap: $95.4B
P/E (trailing): 33x
Revenue (TTM): $26.9B
Net margin: 9.6%
EPS (TTM): $10.96
Gross margin: 22.0%
Debt / equity: 0.00
Revenue growth (3-yr avg): 6.4%
Shares outstanding: 261M

Derived indicators how computed

Quality grade: C
Margin trend: Contracting
52-week position: The upper-middle quarter of its range

Technicals how computed

RSI (14-day): 85 · overbought
50-day average: $351.97
200-day average: $352.21
Moving-average state: 50-day below 200-day (death cross state); price between the averages

Dividends how computed

Paid, last 12 months: $2.80 per share (4 payments)
Yield on last price: 0.77%
Consecutive years of increases: 3
Last ex-dividend date: 2026-08-20
Last payment date: 2026-09-30

Earnings how computed

Next earnings report: 2026-11-02 (pre-market)
Last 8 quarters vs consensus: 6 beat, 2 missed
Quarter by quarter: 2026-06 ▲ beat (+4.2%)
2026-03 ▲ beat (+6.7%)
2025-12 ▼ miss (-1.5%)
2025-09 ▲ beat (+3.3%)
2025-06 ▲ beat (+1.1%)
2025-03 ▲ beat (+3.1%)
2024-12 ▲ beat (+2.9%)
2024-09 ▼ miss (-2.2%)

Analyst consensus how computed

This is not TickrTrends' verdict.

Analyst ratings: 13 buy · 13 hold · 2 sell (28 analysts)
Consensus lean: Hold-leaning
Consensus price target: $384
Target vs last price: +5.0%

What our data shows for MAR

Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for MAR, built from quarterly earnings records.
Shares are trading in the upper third of their 12-month price range of $260.58–$402.54.
The 14-day relative strength index sits at an overbought 85.

The exact numbers are one step away

The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for MAR
Exact discount / premium to today's price
The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes

See the exact fair value →

Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.

Recent MAR news

TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for MAR is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.

Hilton to move stock listing to Nasdaq (economictimes.indiatimes.com, 2026-10-20)
TickrTrends take: Marriott International's planned move to Nasdaq represents a corporate restructuring that could influence trading dynamics and investor composition, though such listing migrations typically do not alter fundamental valuation metrics. Given TickrTrends' current assessment of MAR as overvalued within the Consumer Cyclical sector, investors monitoring this transition should focus on whether the new exchange listing attracts different shareholder bases that might support or pressure current valuations. The shift warrants attention to post-migration trading patterns and any changes in analyst coverage, as these factors can affect how the market prices the company relative to its intrinsic worth.
Singapore's GIC Acquires 16 Marriott Hotels in Japan, Adding to MAR's Global Footprint (gurufocus.com, 2026-09-30)
TickrTrends take: Singapore's state investment fund GIC acquiring 16 Marriott hotels in Japan represents continued expansion of MAR's managed portfolio, though this development occurs while TickrTrends rates the stock as overvalued. Asset acquisitions by third parties under management agreements can generate fee revenue for Marriott without proportional capital deployment, a dynamic that valuation-focused investors should monitor against current pricing. For Consumer Cyclical stocks like MAR, the relationship between portfolio growth and actual earnings accretion becomes particularly important to track, especially when the company's valuation is already elevated relative to fundamentals.
Marriott International (MAR) Expands Credit Facility to $5 Billion and Extends Maturity to 2031 (gurufocus.com, 2026-09-25)
TickrTrends take: Marriott's expansion of its credit facility to 5 billion dollars with an extension to 2031 provides the company with enhanced financial flexibility and liquidity runway, which could support future growth initiatives or shareholder returns. However, TickrTrends currently assigns an Overvalued verdict to MAR, suggesting that the market may already be pricing in favorable outcomes from improved financial positioning. Investors focused on valuation metrics should monitor whether management deploys this additional capacity in ways that generate returns exceeding the cost of capital, as excess leverage without corresponding earnings growth could further justify the overvaluation assessment.

More MAR news

Marriott International (MAR)’s Middle East Headwind Eases, but War Risks Remain (finance.yahoo.com, 2026-09-14)

What people are saying

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TickrTrends weekly updates

2026-10-19 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
2026-10-10 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for the Consumer Cyclical sector show that the RSI zone has shifted from neutral to overbought this week. The sector maintains an overvalued valuation verdict based on current assessment metrics.
2026-10-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
2026-09-28 — # TickrTrends Indicator Summary: MAR (Consumer Cyclical) TickrTrends' derived indicators for MAR shifted this week as the valuation verdict changed from Fairly valued to Overvalued. This change reflects a reassessment of the Consumer Cyclical sector stock's current pricing relative to its fundamental metrics. The sector remains under observation as market conditions continue to evolve.
2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.

Frequently asked questions

Is MAR stock undervalued?

Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), MAR is trading at a 10–25% premium to estimated fair value and screens as overvalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.

What is MAR's TickrTrends verdict?

MAR's current verdict is Overvalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.

How does MAR compare to other Consumer Cyclical stocks?

MAR ranks #62 of 85 Consumer Cyclical stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.

Is MAR overbought or oversold?

MAR's 14-day RSI is in the overbought zone on TickrTrends' latest weekly data.

Does MAR pay a dividend?

Yes. MAR paid $2.80 per share over the last twelve months (4 payments), a 0.77% yield on TickrTrends' last price, and has raised the annual total for 3 consecutive years. The last ex-dividend date was 2026-08-20.

When does MAR report earnings next?

MAR's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-11-02 (pre-market), per the published earnings calendar.

Does MAR usually beat earnings estimates?

Over its last 8 reported quarters MAR beat the consensus estimate 6 times and missed 2 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.

What do analysts say about MAR?

Of 28 analysts covering MAR, 13 rate it a buy, 13 a hold and 2 a sell - hold-leaning, with a consensus price target of $384 (+5.0% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.

All Consumer Cyclical fair-value coverage →

Head-to-head comparisons

MAR vs CASY · MAR vs DHI · MAR vs GTX · MAR vs LEGH · MAR vs LIND