The Progressive Corporation (PGR) fair value analysis

S&P 500 · Updated 2026-09-07

The Progressive Corporation is an insurance company that provides auto, home, commercial auto, and other insurance products to customers primarily in the United States. The company operates through a network of agents and direct channels across all 50 states.

Forward Fair Value verdict

Undervalued

Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model, PGR is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value.

PGR currently ranks #17 of 165 Financial Services stocks by discount to Forward Fair Value. It has screened as Undervalued for 3 consecutive weekly runs.

Last price: $218.95
Sector: Financial Services
12-month range: $192.67–$227.82

Derived indicators

Coarse bands from TickrTrends' weekly models; exact figures are part of the full report.

Quality grade: F
Margin trend: Stable
RSI zone: Neutral
52-week position: The upper-middle quarter of its range
DCF cross-check: Undervalued

What our data shows for PGR

Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for PGR, built from quarterly earnings records.
Shares are trading in the upper third of their 12-month price range of $192.67–$227.82.
The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 53.

The exact numbers are one step away

The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for PGR
Exact discount / premium to today's price
The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes

See the exact fair value →

How Forward Fair Value works

TickrTrends computes a Forward Fair Value for every covered stock each week: a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple is applied to the analyst-consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year. Every input window is validated for continuity and every result is screened for plausibility before publication.

Recent PGR news

TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for PGR is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.

Insurers Are Buying Back More Stock as Pricing Softens (finance.yahoo.com, 2026-09-03)
TickrTrends take: Progressive Corporation operates in the Financial Services sector and is currently assessed as undervalued according to TickrTrends valuation metrics. The insurance industry's increased share buyback activity amid softening pricing pressures suggests companies may be deploying capital to support share value while facing margin compression from competitive market conditions. For valuation-focused investors, monitoring whether Progressive's buyback pace accelerates or moderates will be important context for understanding management's confidence in intrinsic value relative to current market pricing.
Progressive: Strong Underwriting, But Limited Margin Of Safety (NYSE:PGR) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-08-27)
TickrTrends take: Progressive Corporation operates in the Financial Services sector and is currently assessed as undervalued by TickrTrends. The company's strong underwriting performance, as highlighted in recent analysis, provides a foundation for earnings quality, though valuation-focused investors should monitor whether competitive pressures or claims inflation might compress underwriting margins in coming quarters. Given the undervalued designation alongside commentary about limited margin of safety, investors tracking this name should pay particular attention to premium growth rates and combined ratio trends as indicators of whether the valuation discount can be sustained.
Progressive: July Results Show The Growth Mix Is Changing (NYSE:PGR) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-08-26)
TickrTrends take: Progressive reported July results that indicate a shift in its growth composition, which becomes relevant given TickrTrends' current assessment of the company as undervalued within the Financial Services sector. An investor focused on valuation metrics would benefit from examining whether this change in growth mix supports or challenges the undervalued designation, particularly if it affects profitability or competitive positioning. The evolution of Progressive's business mix warrants monitoring to understand whether the current valuation discount reflects temporary adjustment dynamics or represents genuine pricing inefficiency.

What people are saying

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TickrTrends weekly updates

2026-09-07 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
2026-09-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
2026-08-31 — TickrTrends initiated weekly Forward Fair Value coverage of this stock.

Frequently asked questions

Is PGR stock undervalued?

Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-09-07), PGR is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value and screens as undervalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.

What is PGR's TickrTrends verdict?

PGR's current verdict is Undervalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.

How does PGR compare to other Financial Services stocks?

PGR ranks #17 of 165 Financial Services stocks in TickrTrends' coverage when sorted by discount to Forward Fair Value.

Is PGR overbought or oversold?

PGR's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.

All Financial Services fair-value coverage →

Head-to-head comparisons

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