The Progressive Corporation (PGR) fair value analysis
S&P 500 · Updated 2026-10-19
PGR price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
UndervaluedPGR is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $217.43
- Sector
- Financial Services
- 12-month range
- $190.40–$236.36
- Market cap
- $126B
- From 52-week high
- -8.0%
- Shares outstanding
- 580M
- Rank in Financial Services by discount to fair value
- #20 of 167
Last price is our 2026-10-19 weekly price; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
The Progressive Corporation is an insurance company that provides auto, home, commercial auto, and other insurance products to customers primarily in the United States. The company operates through a network of agents and direct channels across all 50 states.
PGR currently ranks #20 of 167 Financial Services stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Undervalued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $126B
- P/E (trailing)
- 11x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $91.7B
- Net margin
- 12.7%
- EPS (TTM)
- $19.08
- Gross margin
- 100.0%
- Debt / equity
- 0.24
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- 12.4%
- Shares outstanding
- 580M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- D
- Margin trend
- Expanding
- 52-week position
- The upper-middle quarter of its range
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 52 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $214.77
- 200-day average
- $208.61
- Moving-average state
- 50-day above 200-day (golden cross state); price above both averages
Dividends how computed
- Paid, last 12 months
- $13.90 per share (4 payments)
- Yield on last price
- 6.39%
- Consecutive years of increases
- 2
- Last ex-dividend date
- 2026-10-01
- Last payment date
- 2026-10-09
Earnings how computed
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 6 beat, 2 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-09 ▲ beat (+3.1%)
2026-06 ▲ beat (+3.2%)
2026-03 ▲ beat (+1.6%)
2025-12 ▲ beat (+5.4%)
2025-09 ▼ miss (-19.8%)
2025-06 ▲ beat (+10.2%)
2025-03 ▼ miss (-2.7%)
2024-12 ▲ beat (+26.3%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 8 buy · 16 hold · 1 sell (25 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Hold-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $230
- Target vs last price
- +5.8%
What our data shows for PGR
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for PGR, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the middle of their 12-month price range of $190.40–$236.36.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 52.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for PGR
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent PGR news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for PGR is currently mixed, computed from recent coverage.
- Evercore ISI Lowers Progressive (PGR) Price Target Amid Policy Decline Concerns (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-14)
TickrTrends take: Evercore ISI's recent price target reduction for Progressive reflects analyst concerns about policy growth headwinds, which carries particular relevance given TickrTrends' current undervalued assessment of the company. For valuation-focused investors, the key question is whether the market has already priced in these policy decline concerns or whether further multiple compression could follow if growth trends deteriorate. In the Financial Services sector where Progressive operates, sustained policy declines would typically warrant closer scrutiny of whether the current undervalued status remains justified or represents a value trap. - Progressive (PGR) Shares Drop 4.88% After Q3 Earnings Miss (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-14)
TickrTrends take: Progressive reported third quarter earnings that fell short of expectations, leading to a 4 percent share price decline. Given that TickrTrends currently rates the stock as undervalued within the Financial Services sector, investors focused on valuation metrics may view this earnings miss as an opportunity to assess whether the company's fundamental value proposition remains intact despite near-term operational challenges. The valuation designation suggests the market may be pricing in greater pessimism than underlying business fundamentals warrant, though the earnings disappointment warrants careful review of forward guidance and loss ratios to confirm that assessment. - Progressive Corp (PGR) Reports Q3 Results, Dividend Sustainability in Focus (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-14)
TickrTrends take: Progressive Corporation's Q3 results and dividend sustainability commentary arrive at a time when TickrTrends' analysis suggests the stock trades below its fundamentally justified valuation. For investors focused on valuation metrics, the key question is whether the company's earnings power and cash generation support both the current dividend level and potential future increases, particularly given competitive pressures in the insurance sector. Management's discussion of underwriting margins and policy growth in the earnings report will be critical data points for determining whether the undervalued assessment holds or whether headwinds to profitability warrant rerating the stock lower.
More PGR news
- Progressive (PGR) Prepares to Report Q3 Earnings Amid Solid Dividend Fundamentals (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-13)
- Progressive Q3 2026 Earnings Preview (NYSE:PGR) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-10-13)
- PGR Looks 22.1% Undervalued on GF Value™ Amid Dividend Strength (gurufocus.com, 2026-09-18)
What people are saying
Follow the PGR conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — PGR's gross-margin trend shifted from contracting to expanding this week, while its quality grade declined from B to D. Despite the improvement in margin trajectory, the overall quality assessment weakened considerably. The stock remains classified as undervalued according to TickrTrends' current valuation metrics.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is PGR stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), PGR is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value and screens as undervalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is PGR's TickrTrends verdict?
PGR's current verdict is Undervalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does PGR compare to other Financial Services stocks?
PGR ranks #20 of 167 Financial Services stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is PGR overbought or oversold?
PGR's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
Does PGR pay a dividend?
Yes. PGR paid $13.90 per share over the last twelve months (4 payments), a 6.39% yield on TickrTrends' last price, and has raised the annual total for 2 consecutive years. The last ex-dividend date was 2026-10-01.
Does PGR usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters PGR beat the consensus estimate 6 times and missed 2 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about PGR?
Of 25 analysts covering PGR, 8 rate it a buy, 16 a hold and 1 a sell - hold-leaning, with a consensus price target of $230 (+5.8% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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