Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) fair value analysis
S&P 500 & Nasdaq · Updated 2026-10-19
ACGL price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
Fairly valuedACGL is trading at within about 10% of estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $95.57
- Sector
- Financial Services
- 12-month range
- $84.72–$106.48
- Market cap
- $32.6B
- From 52-week high
- -10.2%
- Shares outstanding
- 341M
- Rank in Financial Services by discount to fair value
- #68 of 167
Last price is our 2026-10-19 weekly price; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
Arch Capital Group Ltd. is an insurance and reinsurance company that provides property, casualty, and specialty insurance products to clients worldwide. The company operates through subsidiaries in multiple countries and serves customers in North America, Europe, Asia, and other international markets.
ACGL currently ranks #68 of 167 Financial Services stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Fairly valued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $32.6B
- P/E (trailing)
- 9x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $19.2B
- Net margin
- 24.4%
- EPS (TTM)
- $10.81
- Gross margin
- 50.9%
- Debt / equity
- 0.18
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- 11.9%
- Shares outstanding
- 341M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- A
- Margin trend
- Expanding
- 52-week position
- The lower-middle quarter of its range
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 67 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $97.17
- 200-day average
- $96.39
- Moving-average state
- 50-day above 200-day (golden cross state); price between the averages
Dividends how computed
- Dividend
- None in the last 12 months (last ex-date 2024-11-18)
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-10-27 (post-market)
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 8 beat, 0 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▲ beat (+2.8%)
2026-03 ▲ beat (+1.6%)
2025-12 ▲ beat (+16.0%)
2025-09 ▲ beat (+23.1%)
2025-06 ▲ beat (+12.2%)
2025-03 ▲ beat (+17.6%)
2024-12 ▲ beat (+25.6%)
2024-09 ▲ beat (+21.9%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 10 buy · 9 hold · 1 sell (20 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Buy-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $110
- Target vs last price
- +15.1%
What our data shows for ACGL
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for ACGL, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the middle of their 12-month price range of $84.72–$106.48.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 67.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for ACGL
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent ACGL news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for ACGL is currently mixed, computed from recent coverage.
- First Trust Capital Strength (FTCS) Buys $155.3 Million More ACGL on Friday (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-20)
TickrTrends take: The purchase of additional ACGL shares by First Trust Capital Strength represents continued institutional confidence in the company at its current price levels, which aligns with TickrTrends' assessment that the stock is fairly valued. For valuation-focused investors, this institutional buying activity suggests that major investors view the risk-reward balance as appropriate, though it does not necessarily indicate the stock is undervalued or poised for outperformance. Observers should monitor whether such accumulation patterns persist or reverse, as shifts in institutional positioning can reflect changing assessments of the company's fundamental value relative to market price. - ACGL Maintains by Wells Fargo -- Price Target Lowered to $107 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-12)
TickrTrends take: Wells Fargo maintained its position on ACGL while reducing its price target to $107, suggesting the analyst sees limited near-term upside from current levels. Given that TickrTrends currently assesses ACGL as fairly valued, this price target adjustment reflects analyst caution that aligns with the broader view that the stock may lack significant valuation cushion. Investors focused on valuation metrics should monitor whether the stock sustains its fair value assessment or moves toward overvalued territory if it approaches the new Wells Fargo target. - Arch Capital Group Ltd. at Bank of America Global Research Financials CEO Conference Transcript (gurufocus.com, 2026-09-22)
TickrTrends take: Arch Capital Group's participation in the Bank of America Global Research Financials CEO Conference provides an opportunity for investors to assess management's strategic positioning within the Financial Services sector. Given TickrTrends' current assessment that ACGL is fairly valued, conference commentary regarding underwriting performance, capital allocation, and competitive positioning in insurance and reinsurance markets warrants close attention. Valuation-focused readers should monitor whether management signals any material changes to profitability drivers or risk management that could challenge the fairly valued designation.
More ACGL news
- Is Arch Capital Group Stock Underperforming the S&P 500? (finance.yahoo.com, 2026-09-10)
What people are saying
Follow the ACGL conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — ACGL's technical indicators shifted this week as the Relative Strength Index moved from oversold territory into neutral zone. The stock remains fairly valued according to current valuation metrics within the Financial Services sector. This change in RSI suggests reduced downward momentum compared to the previous week's reading.
- 2026-10-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — ACGL's technical positioning has shifted this week as its RSI zone moved from neutral into oversold territory, suggesting the stock may have experienced recent selling pressure. Meanwhile, the company's sector discount rank declined from number 66 to number 74, indicating it has become less attractively valued relative to other Financial Services companies. Despite these technical changes, ACGL maintains a fairly valued overall assessment.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is ACGL stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), ACGL is trading at within about 10% of estimated fair value and screens as fairly valued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is ACGL's TickrTrends verdict?
ACGL's current verdict is Fairly valued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does ACGL compare to other Financial Services stocks?
ACGL ranks #68 of 167 Financial Services stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is ACGL overbought or oversold?
ACGL's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
Does ACGL pay a dividend?
ACGL has paid no dividend in the last twelve months; its last ex-dividend date on file was 2024-11-18.
When does ACGL report earnings next?
ACGL's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-10-27 (post-market), per the published earnings calendar.
Does ACGL usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters ACGL beat the consensus estimate 8 times and missed 0 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about ACGL?
Of 20 analysts covering ACGL, 10 rate it a buy, 9 a hold and 1 a sell - buy-leaning, with a consensus price target of $110 (+15.1% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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