Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) fair value analysis

S&P 500 & Nasdaq · Updated 2026-09-07

Costco Wholesale Corporation is a membership-based warehouse club that sells a wide variety of merchandise including groceries, household goods, electronics, and other products at discounted prices to its members. The company operates warehouse locations across the United States, Canada, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the United Kingdom, and other international markets.

Forward Fair Value verdict

Fairly valued

Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model, COST is trading at within about 10% of estimated fair value.

COST currently ranks #39 of 64 Consumer Defensive stocks by discount to Forward Fair Value. It has screened as Fairly valued for 3 consecutive weekly runs.

Last price: $915.74
Sector: Consumer Defensive
12-month range: $854.50–$1,011.70

Derived indicators

Coarse bands from TickrTrends' weekly models; exact figures are part of the full report.

Quality grade: C
Leverage: Low
Margin trend: Stable
Revenue growth: Strong
RSI zone: Neutral
50/200-day trend: Downtrend
52-week position: The lower-middle quarter of its range
DCF cross-check: Overvalued

What our data shows for COST

Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for COST, built from quarterly earnings records.
Shares are trading in the middle of their 12-month price range of $854.50–$1,011.70.
The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 40.

The exact numbers are one step away

The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for COST
Exact discount / premium to today's price
The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes

See the exact fair value →

How Forward Fair Value works

TickrTrends computes a Forward Fair Value for every covered stock each week: a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple is applied to the analyst-consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year. Every input window is validated for continuity and every result is screened for plausibility before publication.

Recent COST news

TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for COST is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.

Costco Has Grown Its Membership Base no Matter What the Economy Has Done. Does That Make It a Forever Hold? (finance.yahoo.com, 2026-09-05)
TickrTrends take: Costco's consistent membership growth across economic cycles demonstrates a structural competitive advantage that supports its defensive positioning within the Consumer Defensive sector. For valuation-focused investors, the key consideration is whether this resilience justifies a premium to fair value, or whether the current Fairly valued assessment appropriately reflects the stability of its revenue model. Monitoring membership renewal rates and fee increases will be important indicators of whether the company can sustain pricing power without affecting retention during potential economic downturns.
COST Looks 10.5% Undervalued on GF Value™ as of September 2026 (gurufocus.com, 2026-09-02)
TickrTrends take: Costco's apparent undervaluation according to GF Value™ contrasts with TickrTrends' assessment that the stock is fairly valued, suggesting different analytical methodologies may be weighing the company's prospects differently. For investors focused on valuation metrics, this divergence warrants attention to which factors each approach emphasizes, particularly given the Consumer Defensive sector's typically stable but slower-growth characteristics. The gap between these valuations could narrow or widen depending on how Costco's earnings trajectory and operational performance develop relative to current expectations.

What people are saying

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TickrTrends weekly updates

2026-09-07 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
2026-09-06 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for COST show a shift this week as the 50/200-day trend state moved from mixed to downtrend. The stock remains in the Consumer Defensive sector and carries a current valuation verdict of fairly valued. This change in trend positioning represents a notable development in the technical momentum metrics tracked for the company.
2026-08-31 — TickrTrends initiated weekly Forward Fair Value coverage of this stock.

Frequently asked questions

Is COST stock undervalued?

Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-09-07), COST is trading at within about 10% of estimated fair value and screens as fairly valued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.

What is COST's TickrTrends verdict?

COST's current verdict is Fairly valued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.

How does COST compare to other Consumer Defensive stocks?

COST ranks #39 of 64 Consumer Defensive stocks in TickrTrends' coverage when sorted by discount to Forward Fair Value.

Is COST overbought or oversold?

COST's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.

All Consumer Defensive fair-value coverage →

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